The San Diego Padres (4-1) are off to a hot start after taking three of four against Arizona and winning the opening game of their early-week series against the San Francisco Giants (2-2).
Their lone blemish came on Opening Day, during which the Padres' bullpen surrendered a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth. Yu Darvish was consequently robbed of a win despite a stellar outing (6 IP, 0 ER, 0 H), but he will take the mound again tonight.
The Giants won their opening series against Miami, but need a win tonight to give them a chance to do the same against their division mates.
Continue reading for free MLB picks and predictions for the Padres vs. Giants on Tuesday, April 12th.
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Padres vs Giants odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
San Diego opened as very small favorites and movement has teetered both ways, but current odds have the teams essentially even. The total of 8 opened slightly juiced to the Under, but has since taken further action and now sits at 7.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Giants predictions
Picks made on 4/12/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Tuesday, April 12, 2022
• First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Padres vs Giants betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yu Darvish (0-0, 0.00 ERA): By his standards, Darvish struggled last year (8-11, 4.22 ERA) but when looking at his career, that has been the theme for him when changing teams. His second and third years with the Rangers and Cubs produced much better results, including two second-place finishes in Cy Young voting.
Alex Cobb (2022: 8-3, 3.76 ERA): Alex Cobb will be making his Giants debut on Tuesday night following a bounce-back 2021 campaign with the Angels, after struggling through his three years with the Orioles from 2018-to 2020.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr SS (Out), Luis Garcia RP (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out), Michel Baez RP (Out).
Giants: Evan Longoria 3B (Out), Tommy La Stella 2B (Out), LaMonte Wade Jr LF (Out), John Brebbia RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
In 2021, the Padres had a 45-35-1 record towards the Over in road games and a 44-35-0 record the same way in games following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.
Padres vs Giants picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
If there's one pitcher on today's slate with a Cy Young price worth taking the bait on, it's probably Yu Darvish (+2800).
For at least the third time now in his MLB career, Darvish is being written off after a lackluster season. It was done after his postseason blow-up with the Dodgers in 2017 (which we now know came as a result of the Astros sign-stealing scandal); it was done after his first season with the Cubs in 2018 (4.95 ERA), and it seemingly is happening again after a lackluster first season with the Padres last year (4.22 ERA).
But for opposing hitters and bettors alike, doubting Darvish in his subsequent years with organizations has been a losing proposition. He finished with a 2.83 and 3.06 ERA in his second and third years with the Rangers and 3.98 and 2.01 ERA in the same years with the Cubs. If his first start with the Padres (6 IP, 0 ER, 0 H) is any indication of how he might fare this year with the Padres, the NL West and the rest of the MLB is in big trouble.
That could especially be the case for the Giants, who have managed to score three or fewer runs in all but one game thus far. The offensive struggles can be attributed to many things, such as injuries (Evan Longoria and Tommy La Stella), not seeing the ball well (their 25.7% strikeout rate ranks seventh-highest), or not making hard enough contact (19.6% soft contact percentage ranks eighth-highest).
This could be especially problematic given that Alex Cobb will take the mound tonight, who has had struggles against these Padres hitters. The sample is admittedly not the largest (54 at-bats), but Cobb has allowed a .373 expected batting average (xBA) and .473 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). He also has just an 11.1% strikeout rate against these batters, which is staggeringly low.
To bring those numbers into context and to bring this thing full circle, those numbers do not compare favorably to Darvish's against these Giants hitters. In 82 at-bats, Darvish has allowed just a .223 xBA, .346 xwOBA, and has struck out 28.0% of batters. It took three walks, two wild pitches, and a walk-off home run for Darvish to not walk away with a win in his first start, and it might take similar shenanigans for the same to happen tonight.
Prediction: Padres ML (-104 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
Despite being sixth in the league in runs scored last year, the Giants played to the eighth Under-friendliest record last year at 76-86-5 (46.9%). That was largely due to their pitching strength, allowing the second-fewest runs overall.
But they played to different records when looking at home and away splits, going 55.7% to the Under on the road and 50.6% at home. That difference may seem small, but it undoubtedly is a distinction worth mentioning. Add in the fact that humidors are now being used in all 30 ballparks for the first time, and Oracle Park is one of many ballparks using it for the first time in 2022.
For the unaware, humidors are used to store baseballs and standardize the dryness of the baseball across the league. Although all humidors keep balls at the MLB-recommended 70 degrees and 50% humidity, the effect of introducing a humidor depends on the humidity conditions of the park.
In low-humidity parks (like in Colorado and Arizona), humidors keep the balls more moisture-dense relative to the weather and therefore benefit pitchers (denser balls don't fly as far).
In high-humidity parks (Oracle would be one of the most humid in the league), humidors keep balls dryer relative to the weather and hitters would benefit. With the humidity projected to be 70%+ for the game and the wind blowing out 20+ mph, these external factors could play a large role.
And for as good as Darvish has been over his career, he has been a bit prone to give up the long ball, with the league average home run to flyball rate (HR/FB) being just under ten percent, and Darvish having posted a mark above 15% in every season since 2017 except for the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Quite simply, the Padres at even odds with the Giants for tonight's game feels a bit like stealing when looking at the entire context of the matchup.
Outside of a slight bullpen advantage, the Padres seemingly have the edge everywhere else. Darvish is likely being undervalued in the market and quietly had a great Opening Day outing that went under the radar due to the dramatic finish in favor of the Diamondbacks.
And on top of Alex Cobb's documented struggles against these batters, he also has not made his regular-season debut yet and last pitched on April 1st during Spring Training. It would be no surprise if he either had some rust to fight through or had a shorter leash than usual.
The Padres' hitters have also been impressively productive despite the absence of Fernando Tatis, and that absence likely has the market handicapping this offense a bit overzealously. Expect All-Stars Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth to keep anchoring this offense and help Yu Darvish secure a win.
Pick: Padres ML (-104 at Unibet)
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