We have Game 4 of the NLCS with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the San Diego Padres while up 2-1 in the series.
San Diego is in desperate need of a win as going down 3-1 in a series with another game on the road in Game 5 is practically a death sentence.
Will the Padres get the job done, or can the Phillies extend their series lead at home? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions below or additionally check out our Padres vs. Phillies trends.
Padres vs Phillies best odds
Padres vs Phillies picks and predictions
Taking the mound for San Diego in this contest is right-hander Mike Clevinger. It has not been the strongest year for Clevinger, as he is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through 23 appearances.
Based on his metrics, positive regression should not be an issue as he produced a .332 xwOBA, .247 xBA, and .435 xSLG throughout the season. This poor year continued into the postseason as he was shelled by the Dodgers in his one outing last round.
In that game, he surrendered five runs (four earned) on six hits through just 2 2-3 innings pitched. Not only did the YRFI cash in that game, but it has hit in each of Clevinger’s last six starts.
On the other side, we should expect left-hander Bailey Falter to open a bullpen game for Philadelphia. Falter opened a bullpen game in the Phillies’ last regular season game against the Houston Astros.
Although he didn't allow a run, he was shaky, allowing two hits with just one out before the Astros grounded into a double play. The margin between the YRFI and NRFI cashing in that game was slim, and a second time around may not be as fortuitous. Through two career appearances against the Padres, Falter possesses a 16.20 ERA and 2.50 WHIP.
In certain situations, YRFI can be a great bet because it's the only inning in the game that guarantees you the best hitter in the top of the order on each side.
Looking at tonight’s projected starting lineups, we just need one run produced from Jurickson Profar, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto. Against two non-elite pitchers, I would take that bet.
My best bet: Yes Run First Inning (-110 at DraftKings)
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Padres vs Phillies NLCS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 San Diego Padres |
+185 |
 Philadelphia Phillies |
-215 |
Padres vs Phillies moneyline analysis
I strongly dislike picking sides in a projected bullpen game because there is no assurance on who is pitching and when. There is enough unpredictability in baseball... there's even more when you don't know who is taking the mound.
That is why the YRFI bet is the strongest bet to make in this game, especially considering it is the only inning where you know who is pitching and who is hitting. Falter is capable of starting a game, so if he starts well then it's entirely possible he gets through five innings.
On the other hand, it could be like the Houston game where he does not surrender a run and then gets pulled after three outs. With this uncertainty about the direction the Phillies are going to take, I want no part in betting the full game.
Padres vs Phillies Over/Under analysis
Similar to picking a side, I want no part in picking a full-game total because of the pitching situation. Live betting the Over/Under could be a strong play depending on who the Phillies go with after Bailey, but Philadelphia may go with him longer than anticipated if he starts the game well.
I would lean towards blindly betting the Over because of how good these two offenses are and how each of the two starting pitchers has looked, but if we are fading each starting pitcher, then the YRFI wager makes the most sense because it is likely the only inning in the game that we get Clevinger vs. Falter.
Padres vs Phillies trend to know
The YRFI has cashed in each of Mike Clevinger’s last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies
Padres vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, October 22, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33 ERA): It has been a forgettable campaign for the right-hander, especially of late. Over his final six starts of the regular season, Clevinger went 2-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. In his first start of the postseason, he allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits through just 2 2-3 innings pitched against the Dodgers. Boasting a six-pitch arsenal, Clevinger relies on his fastball more than anything else as he throws it 36.7% of the time.
Bailey Falter (6-4, 3.90 ERA): Appearing in games both as a starter and reliever, Falter has had a disappointing season. Opening a bullpen game to end the regular season against the Astros, Falter allowed two hits in the one inning he pitched with zero strikeouts. He has yet to pitch in the postseason, and with a bullpen game lined up once again, Falter will be on a very short leash.
Padres vs Phillies latest injuries
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Padres vs Phillies weather
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