We have Game 5 of the NLCS where the Philadelphia Phillies host the San Diego Padres with a 3-1 series lead.
Philadelphia can punch its ticket to the World Series on Sunday in its final home game of the NLCS, while San Diego looks to force a Game 6 back in California.
Will Philly get the job done, or can the Friars extend their season with a win as MLB odds road dogs? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions below — and be sure to check out our Padres vs. Phillies betting insights as well!
Padres vs Phillies best odds
Padres vs Phillies picks and predictions
After successfully cashing on the YRFI in Game 4, we are going against the grain and taking the NRFI (no runs in the first inning) in Game 5.
Taking the mound for San Diego in this contest is right-hander Yu Darvish. Producing another tremendous season, Darvish went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 30 starts. Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue as he generated a .291 xwOBA, .227 xBA, and .388 xSLG throughout the year.
This strong season continued into the playoffs as he is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through three starts. Not only did the NRFI hit in his start against the Phillies in Game 1 of this series, but it has cashed in nine of Darvish’s last 14 starts.
In his career against Philadelphia, Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. On the other side, we should expect right-hander Zack Wheeler to get the nod for Philadelphia.
These two pitchers went against each other in that aforementioned Game 1, a contest in which the NRFI cashed seamlessly as neither guy even allowed a hit. Like Darvish, Wheeler has had a tremendous year, as he went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Also like Darvish, his strong year translated to good results in the playoffs, sporting a 1-1 record with a 1.40 ERA and 0.52 WHIP through three starts. Including the postseason, the NRFI has hit in each of Wheeler’s last seven starts.
Through seven career starts against San Diego, Wheeler is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The only guarantee when betting NRFI/YRFI is that each pitcher will see the first three batters in each lineup.
In a battle of strength vs. strength, I will side with the trends and two dominant starting pitchers.
My best bet: Run in the first inning - No (-160 at DraftKings)
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Padres vs Phillies NLCS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 San Diego Padres |
+550 |
 Philadelphia Phillies |
-700 |
Padres vs Phillies moneyline analysis
As indicated by the odds, this game could go either way. I do not feel strongly in either direction as both starting pitchers are capable of throwing a gem.
With so much on the line in this contest, we should expect the best from both Wheeler and Darvish in what I expect to be a tightly scored pitcher's dual. Philadelphia obviously has the advantage of home field, but the Padres lineup has gotten contributions from every spot in the batting order and are tough to put away regardless of who is at the dish.
With a game that could easily go either direction, I will gladly back both sides in the form of a NRFI bet.
Padres vs Phillies Over/Under analysis
I would lean toward the Under in this game because of Darvish and Wheeler. However, I think the safer option is just getting through the first six outs.
Both lineups are extremely talented and once they get through seeing a pitcher once or twice, then a rhythm can be established and that is when things can go south. Additionally, I do not want to risk either bullpen blowing up in a crucial game.
Therefore, the F5 Under should also be a strong play. In an effort to not overthink this game, I am sticking with the trends of each starting pitcher and backing them to get through the first inning without damage just like they did in Game 1.
Padres vs Phillies trend to know
The NRFI has cashed in each of Zack Wheeler’s last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies
Padres vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, October 23, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 2:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox Sports 1 |
Starting pitchers
Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA): It has been yet another strong season for the right-hander, particularly recently. Including the postseason, Darvish is 7-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last nine starts. Boasting a six-pitch arsenal, Darvish relies on his cutter more than anything else as he throws it 35.2% of the time.
Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA): ): While the left-hander is known for throwing a gem in four straight starts and then getting rocked in the next, he found a rhythm in the final month of the regular season and never looked back. Including the postseason, Wheeler is 2-1 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.59 WHIP over his last six starts. A fastball-heavy pitcher, Wheeler primarily relies on his four-seam to set up his nasty slider.
Padres vs Phillies latest injuries
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Padres vs Phillies weather
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