The Toronto Blue Jays come home after a rough 1-6 straight up road trip where their only win was a 2-1 victory. Now the sliding club opens up a brief two-game home set with the Philadelphia Phillies who will be going with a bullpen day. Toronto will counter with Jose Berrios.
With both bullpens expected to play a huge role in tonight’s outcome, is looking at the total a more warranted move than picking a side? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for the Phillies vs. Blue Jays.
Phillies vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Jays opened as long as -185 and as short as -200 on the moneyline which opened at 11:30 am ET after Jose Berrios was announced as the starter. The total opened as low as 9 while some books opened at 9.5. Berrios was a -200 road favorite in his last start in Oakland.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 7/12/2022 at 11:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, July 12, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-Philadelphia, Sportsnet
Phillies vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Andrew Bellatti (1-3, 3.14 ERA): The right-handed reliever will get his first MLB start tonight. Bellatti has been a solid relief option with a 41/12 K/BB ratio over 28 2-3 innings but hasn’t thrown more than 26 pitches in any outing and hasn’t recorded more than three outs. The Phillies and their bullpen could possibly need 24 outs tonight. The Philly pen has been up-and-down this season but has some solid names in the backend.
Jose Berrios (6-4, 5.44 ERA): Berrios will get the ball for the series opener as Kevin Gausman is not ready to return. Berrios has been more bad than good this season but is 4-0 with a 3.32 ERA across seven home starts. He’s thrown more than 87 pitches just once over his last six starts and sits in the bottom 10% in the league in contact and expected metrics. He is not fooling many batters this season and his numbers are indicating that it’s not just bad luck.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0-1 in the Phillies’ last eight road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays
Phillies vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Jays are in the dumps and have just one win over their last 10 games with that one victory being a 2-1 final against the lowly Athletics. The pitching has been awful and the offense has struggled to produce runs.
Runs could be on the way, however, for an offense that has produced just 25 runs over its last 10 games. The Jays have had plenty of opportunities to cash runs as they've stranded 68 runners in scoring position over that 10-game stretch. They were just swept (four games) by the Mariners and were outscored 21 to 11, but Toronto did outhit Seattle 38 to 30.
Clustering hits is an important thing to look at in baseball and is very luck driven. The Jays have one of the worst offensive cluster ratings in baseball and this is something that will likely regress to the mean which should benefit this struggling offense.
Even with the losing skid and the bats failing to cash in runners, this is still a Toronto offense that sits third in batting average and sixth in slugging over the last 30 days. The Jays also have the best wOBA and slugging percentage at home in the America League.
With opener Andrew Baellati likely being used for three outs, Toronto will get to see plenty of faces out of the Philly bullpen that is a league-average unit on the season.
The Blue Jays will also get the benefit of not having to see three of the Phillies’ top bats as Bryce Harper is injured while J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm are ineligible due to vaccination status.
Jose Berrios was confirmed as today’s starter for the home side with Kevin Gausman still out. He’s been hit hard this season but has looked much better at home and is coming off two solid starts. He still isn’t getting deep but has a plus matchup vs. a Philly lineup that is missing key bats.
The BAT X projects the Jays as the best lineup on today’s slate, and with Toronto having the advantage offensively and in starting pitching, we’re taking the Jays on the first five innings moneyline and avoiding this awful bullpen. Fangraphs has the Jays' pen as the second-worst pen in the AL.
Toronto should be shorter on the F5 moneyline than the full-game moneyline with the state of its bullpen.
Prediction: Blue Jays first five innings moneyline (-170 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
No team has hit more Overs at home than the Blue Jays at 25-18-0 O/U on the season. They are one of the best home-hitting teams in baseball — and combined with its bullpen struggles make for a perfect team to target for Overs right now. Toronto has hit the Over in 32 of its last 46 games which is good for a 70% hit rate.
Offensively, the Jays lineup is one of the best in baseball. Yes, they are right-handed heavy, but that shouldn’t matter too much today as two of the Phillies’ best relievers (Brad Hand and Jose Alvarado) are lefties.
The Phillies will be without three solid bats in Realmuto, Bohm, and Harper, but this is one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and as long as Kyle Schwarber is in the order, this nine can still produce.
Schwarber is 25-for-106 over the last 30 days with 12 of those 25 hits having left the yard. With Berrios getting barrelled up often and failing to record more than 18 outs in five straight starts, Schwarber and this retooled lineup will get plenty of swings vs. a Toronto bullpen that has been a disaster this season — especially of late.
If Toronto trails and throws out its “B” bullpen, the visitors could be stacking some late runs. The Jays’ relievers have the second-worst ERA in the AL over the last 30 days and the third-worst FIP.
Even with some missing pieces, the Phillies should be able to get plenty of traffic on base against the Jays who will likely need the bullpen for double-digit outs. The Toronto lineup has a great matchup against the Philadelphia bullpen and some production should come despite the recent results.
Prediction: Over 9 (-120 at BetMGM)
Best bet
The Jays have the advantage for the first half of the game, but once things get handed over to the pen, anything can happen — just ask Toronto backers on Sunday. The team’s top relievers haven’t been able to hold a lead of late and the mop-up guys are basically waving a white flag. With the late-inning inconsistencies, we’re avoiding the Jays’ moneyline but are getting down on the full-game Over.
With Bohm, Realmuto, and Harper out of the lineup for Philadelphia, books have priced that into the total, but this is still a decent offense that will get to see plenty of a bad Toronto bullpen and Berrios — who gets barrelled up at nearly double the league average. Philadelphia should easily flirt with its team total tonight.
The Blue Jays are one of the best home-hitting teams in baseball and the runs should come as they have been an unlucky team of late in regards to hitting with RISP.
With a high probability of two-way scoring and a game that could see double-digit pitchers, we’re happy to hit this Over. Toronto hasn't been scoring much but regression is coming and the Phillies could light up the Jays' relievers.
Pick: Over 9 (-120 at BetMGM)
