After getting shellacked Tuesday night, the Philadelphia Phillies will try and get a split with their NL East rivals, the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday afternoon. The Phillies saw their five-game winning streak snapped, while Atlanta won its fourth straight.
Zack Wheeler has had success against the Braves in his two starts against them this season. Charlie Morton takes the mound for Atlanta and has struggled against Philadelphia in three games this season.
Can the Phillies get a split or will Atlanta extend its lead atop the division? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Braves.
Phillies vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Phillies opened as the underdog for the second straight game, starting at +125 and getting as low as +110 at BetMGM. The Braves began at -145 and have slid as low as -125 at WynnBET. The total has stayed at 7.5 with the Over at -110 at multiple books and the Under at -109.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Braves predictions
Picks made on 8/3/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Wednesday, August 3, 2022
• First pitch: 12:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-PHI, Bally Sports
Phillies vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (9-5, 2.77 ERA): After a shaky start to the season, Wheeler has been one of the more consistent starters on the Phillies. The 32-year-old right-hander has pitched back-to-back gems. In his last start against the Pirates, he picked up his ninth win going seven innings and allowing two runs on three hits. The start before that he limited the Chicago Cubs to one run on three hits. He's faced the Braves twice this season, allowing five runs on 13 hits in 13 innings.
Charlie Morton (5-5, 4.34 ERA): The month of July has been pretty productive for the veteran right-hander. Morton is 1-2 in his last five but he has been turning in quality starts in three of those games. The 38-year-old has faced the Phillies three times this season. In his last start a week ago, Morton gave up four earned runs on six hits in five innings and got the loss. In his other two appearances against Philadelphia, he allowed six runs on 16 hits in 10 innings, not getting decisions in either game.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Atlanta and 4-0-1 in the last four meetings between the two teams. . Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves
Phillies vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Understandably, the Phillies are once again underdogs to the Atlanta Braves.
They lost 13-1 on Tuesday and oddsmakers aren’t giving them much of a chance to win on Wednesday afternoon, but that might be a mistake. The Phillies were 5-5 on the season against the Braves before Tuesday’s loss, and the two have played each other pretty tight thus far.
Now, Philadelphia has a good chance to win with Zack Wheeler on the mound. He has faced the Braves twice this season, allowing five runs on 13 hits in 13 innings.
More importantly, Wheeler has been strong in his last two outings. He allowed two earned runs against the Pittsburgh Pirates in seven innings last Thursday, and five days earlier allowed one run on three hits in seven innings to the Chicago Cubs.
Wheeler will need some help from his teammates, however, to be successful. The Phillies are desperately missing Bryce Harper but have managed to stay in the Top 10 in several offensive categories. Philadelphia is seventh in RBI with 456, seventh in home runs with 131, sixth in runs with 476, and 10th in batting average at .248.
Atlanta is ahead of them, however, in most offensive categories. They are second in home runs at 158, fourth in RBI with 462, ninth in hits with 868, and fourth in runs with 486.
Atlanta’s issue will be who is pitching for them on Wednesday. Charlie Morton has struggled against the Phillies this season. In three appearances, he has allowed 10 runs on 22 hits in 15 innings.
The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against a right-handed starter but 3-5 against a team with a winning record.
The Phillies are 5-1 in their last six and 4-1 against a right-handed starter. They are also 7-1 in their last eight road games. Take them again here.
Prediction: Phillies moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Look at Tuesday’s score as a norm rather than the exception. Both of these teams like to score runs and both are capable by themselves of going Over the total of 7.5.
The Braves are fourth in runs and second in home runs. They have scored five or more runs in three of their last six games.
The Phillies are seventh in RBI, seventh in home runs, and sixth in runs. In their last six games, they have scored five or more runs three times.
The numbers get better when the two teams face each other. The Over is 8-2-1 when the two played each other this season.
The trends favor the Over as well. For Philadelphia, the Over is 4-0-1 against a team with a winning record, and 6-1-1 against a right-handed starter.
The Braves have hit the Over six times in their last seven against teams in the NL East and are 4-0-1 in their last five against teams with a winning record.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Best bet
With the way these two teams score runs, it's a bit surprising that the total for the first five innings was this low.
In Tuesday’s game, four runs were reached by the fourth inning, then the Braves exploded for six in the fifth to blow past the line of 4.5 runs.
Expect the same to happen on Wednesday. Both teams have explosive offenses and like to score early. When they played each other a week ago, the Phillies got five runs in the fifth. The day before, the Braves had five runs by the fifth inning.
In fact, in the 11 games the two have played against one another this season, four or more runs were scored by the fifth in all but two of them.
At decent odds, I’ll take this bet and roll with the probability that these offenses will reach this number once again.
Pick: First five innings Over 4 (-110 at DraftKings)
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