The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves face off in Game 2 of the NLDS on Wednesday afternoon.
Philadelphia won the opening game in the NLDS yesterday afternoon and looks to take a commanding 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series. Oddsmakers expect the defending World Series champs to even things up as MLB betting lines opened with Atlanta as -125 home favorites before shifting to -145.
Here are my best free Phillies vs. Braves MLB betting picks and predictions for October 12.
Phillies vs Braves best odds
Phillies vs Braves picks and predictions
Phillies' starter Zack Wheeler isn't as much of a strikeout artist as teammate Aaron Nola, but he still does an excellent job of making batters whiff.
Wheeler's 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings would have ranked 11th in the majors and his strikeout rate of 26.9% would have tied for 12th if he had pitched enough innings to qualify among the league leaders (he fell just nine innings short).
Wheeler had just four strikeouts in last Friday's win against St. Louis, but he still looked fantastic in that contest. He has struck out at least seven batters in all three of his starts vs. Atlanta this season.
The Braves have a terrific lineup when it comes to hitting for power, but those big bats also miss an awful lot. They finished the regular season ranked third last in the majors in strikeout rate (24.6%) and fanned 12 times in Game 1. Take the Over 5.5 on Wheeler's punchouts at plus money.
My best bet: Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts (+123 at SugarHouse)
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Phillies vs Braves NLDS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Phillies |
-165 |
 Atlanta Braves |
+135 |
Phillies vs Braves moneyline analysis
The Phillies held off the Braves 7-6 last night with Atlanta's comeback attempt in the bottom of the ninth falling just short after plating three runs.
That was a huge win for the Phillies who started Ranger Suarez, and now they'll get throw aces Wheeler and Nola at Atlanta in back-to-back contests. Those two studs led the Phillies to an upset victory over the Cardinals in the Wild Card round and on four days of rest, Wheeler will be back at it tonight.
Wheeler spent some time toward the end of the season on the IL with a forearm injury, but since coming back into the lineup he hasn't skipped a beat. In his last three regular season starts he allowed just nine hits and one run across 15 innings. In last Friday's Wild Card win against the Cardinals, he threw six innings of shutout ball and allowed just a pair of singles.
The Braves will respond with a pretty good starter of their own in Kyle Wright. The 27-year-old led the majors with 21 wins during the regular season — although it's worth noting that his expected ERA of 3.89 was significantly higher than his ERA of 3.19.
Wright also ranks among the Bottom 25th percentile of pitchers when it comes to hard-hit rate and the bottom 40th percentile in average exit velocity. Wheeler is far better in those metrics, ranking in the Top 10th percentile in average exit velocity and Top 25th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Both of these teams can mash, with Atlanta leading the majors in slugging percentage (.443) and barrel rate (10.9%) while ranking second in hard-hit rate (43.5%) during the regular season.
The Phillies were sixth in slugging (.422) and hard-hit rate (41.1%) and ranked seventh in barrel rate (8.5%) despite missing their best hitter in Bryce Harper for more than 60 games.
Phillies vs Braves Over/Under analysis
After combining for 13 runs last night, there's reason to think that Game 2 might be lower scoring with a pair of studs on the mound. Especially when you consider that the Phillies drove in five runs with two outs on the board in yesterday's contest.
Wheeler pitched to a 2.82 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in 26 starts this year and in three starts against the Braves, he had a 2.70 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP.
Meanwhile, Wright pitched very well against Philadelphia posting a 2.84 ERA with a .123 OBA in three starts.
Atlanta also has a terrific bullpen, with its relievers pitching to a 2.87 ERA with an OBA of .205 since the All-Star break. All that said, one factor that makes betting on the Under tough is the sorry state of the Phillies' bullpen.
During the second half of the season, their relievers had a collective 5.10 ERA with a .268 OBA and they were fortunate to get out of the ninth inning yesterday afternoon.
Phillies vs Braves trend to know
The Under is 5-2-1 in the Braves' last eight playoff games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves
Phillies vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 12, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 4:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA): Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in the majors for the last three years, pitching to an ERA below 3.00 in each season. He has been red hot since coming off the IL in late September, pitching to a 0.42 ERA with a 0.61 WHIP through 21 1-3 innings over his last four starts — including a dominant performance against the Cardinals in the Wild Card round last Friday.
Kyle Wright (21-5, 3.19 ERA): In his first full season in the majors, Wright emerged as an ace, leading the majors in wins while pitching to a 1.16 WHIP with a 3.58 FIP across 180 1-3 innings. In his previous start on October 1, he scattered seven hits and two runs in five innings against the Mets in a tense showdown with heavy playoff implications. Despite his young age, Wright has made four postseason appearances over the last two seasons.
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
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Phillies vs Braves weather
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