The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies in a rubber match to finish off their three-game series.
Neither team is really clicking offensively, with just nine runs combined through the first two games of the series. It’ll be a battle between two youngsters on the mound, and my Phillies vs. Braves predictions expect Spencer Schwellenbach to shine on the mound for Atlanta.
Find out more in our MLB picks for Thursday, August 22.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 strikeouts (-158 via FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Atlanta Braves have been bit hard by the injury bug, but they’re still very much in contention due to young guys stepping up. One of those guys is tonight’s starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach.
Schwellenbach started the season in Class-A Advanced before being promoted to Double-A after six starts. Spanning a total of eight minor league starts before his major-league debut, the righthander went 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA through 45 innings with 51 strikeouts.
Those strikeout numbers have translated to the major-league level, boasting 85 punchouts in 75 2/3 innings while battling through some tough outings. Not only has the right-hander eclipsed 5.5 strikeouts in his last five starts, but he's gone Over 5.5 Ks in nine of his last 10 outings, including a start against the Philadelphia Phillies back on July 6.
The lone outlier in that span was on the road in San Diego against a Padres lineup that averages just 6.63 strikeouts per game. The Phillies sit in the middle of the pack at 8.32 per game, including 8.95 on the road.
I’d be willing to go up the ladder a bit here as well with Over 6.5 (+134) hitting in five straight and Over 7.5 (+280) in four of his last five starts. Schwellenbach has also hit double-digit strikeouts twice in his last four outings, so Over 8.5 (+540) may be worth a sprinkle.
Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Spencer Schwellenbach 6+ strikeouts
Johan Rojas Over 0.5 runs + hits + RBI
Under 8.5
Johan Rojas is on the Phillies roster for his defense and speed, but he’s been making use of his bat of late as well. The outfielder has a hit in six of his last seven games and nine of 12 contests this month. He’s also viable to get on base via a walk or fielder's choice with the top of the lineup looming.
The Phillies and Braves both can’t score too much overall recently so I’m closing out the parlay with an Under 8.5. The Phils have scored 16 runs in their last five games while the Braves have 19 in their last six — and that includes an 11-run outburst against the Angels.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Phillies vs Braves live odds
Phillies vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -105 | Atlanta -115
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-250) | Atlanta -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Phillies vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies odds haven’t moved much since opening around -105, varying as high as -110 as of Thursday morning.
- The Braves are between -110 and -115 on the moneyline after opening at -115.
- The total is set at a flat 8.0 following two low-scoring games to begin the series.
Phillies vs Braves trend
Atlanta has hit the game total Under in 74 of its last 126 games (+22.05 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
Phillies vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (9-8, 3.46 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (4-6, 4.04 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Phillies vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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