The Miami Marlins will be looking to snap a three-game losing skid when they host a Philadelphia Phillies team that is looking to avoid losing its third straight contest.
Miami goes into the opener of this four-game set as a slight MLB betting home 'dog against a Phillies team that is currently at .500. Neither team will want to let this series get away, to avoid digging too big of a hole early in the year.
Who do we like to get back in the win column for this South Beach clash? See our Phillies vs. Marlins best bet below in our free MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, April 14.
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Phillies vs Marlins odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Marlins opened as -110 favorites but the line has swung to see the Fish as slight -105 underdogs as of 9 a.m. ET. The total opened at 7.5 and is still sitting at that number at most sportsbooks, although there are some shops that have moved to 8.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Marlins predictions
Picks made on 4/14/2022 at 1:13 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Marlins game info
• Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• Date: Thursday, April 14, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-Philadelphia, Bally Sports Florida
Phillies vs Marlins betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kyle Gibson (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Gibson was outstanding in his first start of the year, striking out 10 in seven shutout innings against the Oakland A's. It was a positive way for Gibson to open the year, as he finished 2021 by going 4-6 with a 5.09 ERA in 11 starts with the Phillies, after going 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 19 starts for the Rangers. Philadelphia is hoping it's getting Texas’ version of the veteran righty in 2022.
Sandy Alcantara (0-0, 3.60 ERA): Alcantara gave up three earned runs in five innings against the Giants in his 2022 debut, but he also walked five batters. It was an uncharacteristically wild outing for the 26-year-old righty, who issued just 2.2 BB/9 last season, had a 3.19 ERA in 33 starts for the Marlins last year, and was pegged as a breakout candidate coming into this season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Corey Knebel P (Out), Mickey Moniak OF (Out), Brian Marconi P (Out).
Marlins: Avisail Garcia OF (Questionable), Jose Devers SS (Out), Sean Guenther P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 games against right-handed starters (dating back to last season). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Marlins.
Phillies vs Marlins picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Despite the fact that he was dominant in his opening start, we're not overly confident in Gibson posting another equally impressive is unlikely to post another stat line like that today. Gibson has only twice ever posted a K/9 above 8.0 in a season — so he's not exactly a strikeout artist — and in his last tangle with the Marlins (last season), the 34-year-old Gibson got lit up to the tune of eight earned runs on eight hits in 5 1-3 innings.
There's also the fact that Gibson, one of the Phillies' middle-of-the-rotation arms, is squaring off against the best Miami has to offer. Alcantara burst on the scene in 2021 with career highs in innings pitched (205 2-3), strikeouts (201), and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.02). He also had a 2.4 win probability added, which means he was a heck of a lot better than his 9-15 record suggests.
Alcantara also happened to do his best work when pitching in Florida, as he had a 2.41 ERA and .198 opponent batting average in 16 starts at home last season — compared to a 4.01 ERA and .247 OBA when pitching on the road. We're counting on the righty to come through with a solid performance tonight.
We’ll need Miami’s offense to show a little life, but getting the better pitcher at home as an underdog is too good of a value to pass up.
Prediction: Marlins moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Gibson had a 4.47 ERA on the road last season and, as mentioned above, he gave up eight runs in 5 1-3 innings in his only trip to Miami last year. The Marlins have been dreadful offensively to open the season, but this seems like a solid opportunity for them to find a breakthrough.
Gibson has struggled against lefties in the past, so we're looking at the Miami lefties Jesus Sanchez, Joey Wendle, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to give their team a big boost today. That would give Over bettors a nice jolt of energy, considering the Phils have plated at least four runs in four of their six games in 2022.
Ironically, the Marlins' lone over this season came in Alcantara's last start on Opening Day — we're banking on it going 2-for-2 in games with the Miami ace.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Best bet
The Marlins have had their struggles offensively early in the season but finding their team total this low is shocking, considering the game is almost priced as a coin flip (they actually opened as favorites) and they aren’t exactly facing one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Gibson is coming off of a fantastic outing against the A's, but the righty gave up at least four earned runs in seven of his final 15 starts last year. He's could very easily let the Marlins win this bet in just his time on the mound, and then you also have to factor in Philadelphia’s miserable bullpen.
The Phillies have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball this season — and that’s a good sign for a struggling Marlins lineup to score at least four runs today.
Pick: Marlins team total Over 3.5 (-129 at Unibet)
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