The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are jockeying for position after trading thrilling wins through the first two games of the NLDS.
The MLB player props markets are bumping, and I'm heavily targeting Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola, who I expect to pitch well — and deep — on Tuesday, October 8. We've also got full-game Phillies vs. Mets predictions from analyst Ed Scimia.
Phillies vs Mets NLDS Game 3 props
- Aaron Nola Under 1.5 walks (-120 at BetMGM)
- Aaron Nola Over 16.5 outs (-125 at Caesars)
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 10-8 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Phillies vs Mets props
Prop bet #1: Aaron Nola Under 1.5 walks allowed
The Philadelphia Phillies saved righty Aaron Nola for Game 3, instead electing to hand the ball to Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2. As a result, Nola gets a little extra rest and gets to face the New York Mets at Citi Field.
I was tempted to target the Under on hits allowed and earned runs, but Nola doesn't overpower hitters, and teams can string hits together against him from time to time. The Phillies aren't the best defensive team, either, so would-be outs can squeak through for hits.
Instead, I like Nola to limit the free passes. The reset will do him a load of good. He walked one or none in roughly half his starts this season, but he should be in and around the zone all game. Citi Field is more pitcher-friendly despite being his road park, and Nola cruised to a complete-game shutout there earlier in the season.
Prop bet #2: Aaron Nola Over 16.5 outs recorded
I'm double-dipping on Nola with my MLB picks. Pitcher leashes are much shorter in the postseason as every out counts, but the Phillies need length from their starter. Philly used five relievers in Game 2 and even though there was a day off in between games, Game 4 goes tomorrow with Ranger Suarez toeing the rubber.
For as good as Suarez was early in the season, he spent time on the injured list and simply didn't — or couldn't — pitch as deep into games down the stretch. After returning from injury, he didn't complete six innings once in seven starts.
With Suarez likely limited tomorrow, I expect Nola to be given a little extra time on the hill to spare the bullpen. Remember, it's not just about winning this series but staying sharp enough to compete in the NLCS. Nola routinely pitched deep during the regular season, throwing at least 80 pitches in all 33 starts while failing to reach 90 only four times.
Prop bet #3: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Even if Nola pitches well enough to get through six innings, he can still surrender his fair share of base hits. He posted the lowest strikeout rate since 2015 this season and regularly saw traffic on the basepaths.
Pete Alonso remains the Mets' best home run threat despite some struggles, and I like him to have a solid showing at the dish. The Philly bullpen is good, if not spectacular, and is prone to the long ball, so he'll go from facing a pitcher who doesn't miss bats pitching in front of a defense that occasionally lets him down to a bullpen that has allowed 10 runs in two games this series.
Alonso hits behind Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo, all of whom are on-base threats. Alonso doesn't need to go deep to cash the plus-money Over as a result.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
