When betting on MLB player props, it's common to see inflated numbers for superstars — especially when they are red-hot and in a favorable matchup. That makes the price on Over 1.5 total bases for Houston's Yordan Alvarez particularly noteworthy today with the Astros hosting the Rangers.
See why I'm backing Alvarez and two other players with my best free MLB picks for Saturday, July 13.
MLB props for July 13
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
- Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 earned runs (-145 at DraftKings)
- Taylor Ward Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+105 at BetMGM)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Alvarez comes up aces
Yordan Alvarez is one of the top hitters in the world and he ranks ninth in the majors in slugging percentage (.541) with his xSLG even higher at .573. He's been red-hot since the start of June, slashing .346/.447/.727 with 21 extra base hits in 31 games. Alvarez is in a good spot to keep rolling with the Houston Astros hosting the Texas Rangers this afternoon.
Texas is starting righty Nathan Eovaldi, and while he has an impressive 3.10 ERA through 10 starts, that number balloons to 5.40 in five starts on the road. That includes an outing against the 'Stros in April when Eovaldi surrendered eight hits and five runs in six innings.
Alvarez has also crushed the ball against Eovaldi in his career, going 11-for-17 at the plate with a pair of homers and three doubles. The left-handed Alvarez thrives with the platoon advantage, and with Texas having just one southpaw in its bullpen, he could have that advantage all game long.
Yordan Alvarez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Lopez loves San Diego
After a certain sample size, you have to start overlooking analytics. That's where I'm at with Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 1.71 ERA with a .209 OBA through 16 starts. The difference between Lopez's ERA of 1.71 and his expected ERA of 4.26 is a staggering 2.55 — easily the biggest gap in the majors.
Sure, Lopez ranks in the Bottom 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate, but it's tough to argue with the results. The Atlanta Braves righty has also been very consistent, allowing more than 2.5 earned runs just once in those 16 starts. He's in a good spot to have another strong outing tonight as takes the mound vs. the San Diego Padres.
The Friars are right around the MLB average in most batting categories and they've been trending downward since losing All-Star slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. to a leg injury a few weeks ago. In their last 10 games, they've been shut out twice while being held to just a single run on three occasions, including yesterday. The run-suppressing nature of Petco Park should also benefit our MLB picks.
Reynaldo Lopez prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (-145 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Ward lays waste to Mariners
While I've decided to ignore analytics with my bet on Lopez, positive regression is a big reason I'm backing Los Angeles Angels outfielder Taylor Ward. Ward leads the Halos in runs (44) and RBI (44) despite batting .230 and slugging just .403.
However, his expected batting average of .252 is much more in line with his career numbers and his xSLG of .489 ranks in the Top 15th percentile. Ward is also in the Top 10th percentile in barrel rate and the Top 20th percentile in exit velocity, so I expect his batting production to come along eventually.
Tonight, the Angels are hosting the Seattle Mariners and right-hander George Kirby. Kirby has a 4.11 ERA with an OBA of .250 away from the pitcher-friendly confines of his home field. This is five-star prop according to THE BAT X, which is projecting 2.1 hits, runs, and RBIs for Ward today.
Taylor Ward prop: Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (+105 at BetMGM)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Today’s MLB games
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