This NL Central series finale gets underway on Thursday with the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium.
MLB odds have Milwaukee as a slight -120 betting favorite but our Brewers vs. Cardinals predictions will instead be fading one of the starting pitchers. Read more in our MLB picks below.
Brewers vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Right-hander Miles Mikolas takes the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals and is 8-10 with a 5.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP through 25 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we're going to fade him in the prop market as he ranks in the 46th percentile in chase rate, bottom percentile in whiff rate, and ninth percentile in strikeout rate.
Subsequently, the right-hander has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in nine of his past 10 starts. He's 3-4 over that stretch with a fade-worthy 6.71 ERA.
These woes are likely to continue against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team Mikolas possesses a 4.09 ERA against through 18 career meetings. Through 95 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Brewers lineup possesses a mere 16.8% strikeout rate and 18.4% whiff rate.
Looking at Thursday’s projected lineup, five of Milwaukee’s nine hitters possess a strikeout rate south of 22%.
Brewers vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 strikeouts
Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts
Brewers moneyline
We'll remain in the prop market and back right-hander Freddy Peralta in the strikeout department. This season, he ranks in the 89th percentile in whiff rate and 86th percentile in strikeout rate.
You can currently find Peralta’s strikeout prop at 5.5, a total he's surpassed in 13 of his past 18 starts. If we're simultaneously fading St. Louis’ starting pitching while backing Milwaukee’s, then a highly correlated outcome would be for the Brewers to win outright.
Milwaukee outranks the Cardinals in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Cardinals odds
Brewers vs Cardinals live odds
Brewers vs Cardinals opening odds
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -1.5 (+140) | St. Louis +1.5 (-166)
- Run line: Milwaukee -120 | St. Louis +100
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Brewers vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Brewers opened as a -120 favorite and remain at that price at the time of writing. I project this line to further widen, due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 7.5 and has since been bet up to 8.
- This line movement makes sense, given Mikolas' likely struggles gainst this strong Brewers lineup
Brewers vs Cardinals trend
Miles Mikolas has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in nine of his past 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals.
Brewers vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Midwest |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (8-7, 4.00 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Miles Mikolas (8-10, 5.41 ERA) |
Brewers vs Cardinals latest injuries
Brewers vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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