The Arizona State Sun Devils nearly blew a 27-point in the second half late on Saturday night, needing to drain the clock to hold on after Mississippi State poured in 20 straight points. That stressor may create a critical worry less than a week later, as the Sun Devils head to San Marcos to face the Texas State Bobcats tonight.
That scheduling disadvantage, particularly on the road, points my Arizona State vs. Texas State predictions towards the Bobcats. Find out more in our college football picks for Thursday, September 12.
Arizona State vs Texas State prediction
My best bet
Texas State moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Listeners of “College Football 134” have already heard this thought. They know just how rough of a scheduling spot this is for Arizona State.
The Sun Devils can pin much of the blame on the realities of weather. The policy forbids day games on Arizona campuses in August and September, and understandably so given the official temperature for Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. local kick was 101 degrees.
But as a result of that late kickoff, Arizona State will reach Thursday night’s kickoff on a tighter turnaround than all but one team in the last two-plus years. Just 113.5 hours after the Sun Devils held onto their 30-23 win against the Bulldogs, they will take the field against Texas State.
That is enough time to 1) Celebrate the win a bit. 2) Get Sunday midday treatment. 3) Have a light practice on Monday, a practice Tuesday, and a light session Wednesday. 4) Fly two-plus hours to San Marcos. 5) Have a Thursday morning walk-through. 6) Warm up.
That’s it. Arizona State hardly had time this week to implement a game plan. That’s just a fact.
Meanwhile, Texas State had no travel to worry about, had its game end five hours earlier, had no stress in that 49-10 walloping of UTSA, and now enjoys home-field advantage. The Bobcats are on a reasonably tight turnaround themselves, but it is nowhere near as arduous as the Sun Devils’ week has been.
In last two years, 6 teams have played with turnarounds w/in 3 hours of Arizona St's this week. They went 1-5 ATS, the exception being beating a team on an even worse turnaround. So call it 0-5.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 11, 2024
Arizona St is barely getting in two practices this week. Plus travel ... Texas St ML https://t.co/l5ahYhY8ho pic.twitter.com/cDYjD6XPY0
Usual numbers would suggest this game should be a pick’em, but the combination of home-field advantage and a favorable schedule should have Texas State as a favorite. Anytime a home underdog should be chalk, there is clear value in that moneyline.
In the last two seasons, just one team has had a kickoff-to-kickoff turnaround (against only FBS foes) quicker than Arizona State’s this week. Five others had turnarounds within three hours of this brevity.
Those six teams went 1-5 against the spread. The exception? Two of these teams facing each other...so let’s call it 0-5 ATS.
Arizona State vs Texas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas State moneyline
Arizona State team total Under 31.5
Jordan McCloud anytime touchdown
Grant the premise that Arizona State should be tired, and add in the fact that Thursday in San Marcos is expected to see a high temperature of 95 degrees, with sunset not coming until a few minutes after this kickoff.
Now recognize the fact that the Sun Devils have run the ball 10.1% more often this season than the usual game state would indicate, per cfb-graphs on collegefootballinsiders.com, and that the Bobcats’ defense has fared quite well against the rush.
Arizona State may tire early, and its greatest offensive strength not only relies on physicality, but it also fits right into Texas State’s defensive strength. Doubt the Sun Devils to score in bunches. Admittedly, this team total of 31.5 is an alternative line, intended to jump over the key number of 31, a worthwhile risk given BetMGM knocks down the same-game parlay payout by only 5% with this precaution.
Bobcats quarterback Jordan McCloud is most known for his arm, but it warrants noting he ran for two touchdowns in last week’s crucial game against UTSA. At James Madison last season, McCloud rushed for eight scores, six of them coming in pivotal conference matchups.
He seems to lean into his legs when the games matter most, and knocking off a Power Four opponent would help burgeon Texas State’s Playoff hopes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
Arizona State vs Texas State odds
Arizona State vs Texas State live odds
Arizona State vs Texas State opening odds
- Spread: Arizona State -2.5 | Texas State +2.5
- Moneyline: Arizona State -120 | Texas State +100
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 | Under 58.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Arizona State vs Texas State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona State opened at the sharpest of sportsbooks as a 3.5-point favorite, a number quickly bet down to -1.5 by the end of Monday.
- To reiterate from earlier, an advanced metrics argument could be made this game should be a pick’em even without Texas State’s schedule advantage.
- This total opened at 58.5 and climbed to 59.5 by Tuesday morning, even reaching 60.0 at some books on Wednesday afternoon.
Arizona State vs Texas State betting trend to know
Those five teams at distinct scheduling disadvantages in the last two seasons not only went 0-5 ATS but also fell short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.0 points. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona State vs Texas State.
Arizona State vs Texas State game info
| Location: | Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Arizona State vs Texas State latest injuries
Arizona State vs Texas State weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
