Arizona is set to visit Kansas State tonight in one of the under-the-radar best Week 3 matchups on the college football schedule.
Arizona vs Kansas State prediction
My best bet
Noah Fifita Over 260.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Arizona Wildcats and the Kansas State Wildcats have a lot of similarities heading into this quietly important game aside from their team names. Both are 2-0 and both hold hopes of a conference championship, and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff. Additionally, each team's success relies heavily on the play of their quarterbacks.
For Kansas State that is Avery Johnson, whom the program was so excited about last season that they were OK with former QB Will Howard hitting the transfer portal and heading to Ohio State. Johnson is a gifted athlete that can make things happen with his legs, but is still developing as a passer.
That is not the case with Noah Fifita of Arizona, and he’s who I want to focus on. The kid can chuck it as he’s thrown for 3,395 yards and 30 touchdowns in 11 games since taking over the starting job against Washington in Zona’s fourth game of the season last year.
That includes him throwing for 422 yards and four touchdowns in a beatdown of New Mexico in a season-opening win. Oh, and you’re going to be hearing a lot about his top receiver in the next draft cycle, Tetairoa McMillan. He went for 304 of those yards and all four of those scores in that win.
Fifita and McMillan will get their chances to keep doing their thing against this K-State defense that struggled last week against Tulane. You can make the case that Kansas State should have lost if not for some key turnovers. Prior to that, redshirt freshman QB Darian Mensah was torching them (19-for-29, 342 yards, two TDs). While Mensah might have a bright future, I’d bet my money that Fifita is an upgrade over him, and McMillan is certainly an upgrade over the Tulane WR room.
Arizona also allowed 39 points in that win against New Mexico, and that is not a good football team. That's why Over 58 was one of my best bets in this week’s episode of College Football 134, but that number is now 59.5 and rising.
If you can find an Arizona team total Over 24.5 I would recommend that as well. But let’s make do with Fifita to go Over his passing yards prop in this matchup. He is averaging 308 passing yards per game with Arizona and has gone over this number seven times in 11 starts.
Arizona vs Kansas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Noah Fifita Over 260.5 passing yards
Tetairoa McMillan Over 94.5 receiving yards
Arizona +7.5
I am doubling down on Fifita having a good night on Friday because if he goes Over his passing prop, it’s very likely that Tetairoa McMillan will go Over his receiving yard prop as well.
McMillan is already being projected as the potential top wide receiver selected in next April’s NFL Draft. At 6-foot-5, the junior wideout is a problem for any defensive back. While he isn’t the fastest dude, he is an exceptional athlete in terms of jumping ability and is great after the catch.
Kansas State allowed not only one but two Tulane receivers to go Over this number last week. McMillan is averaging 114.5 yards per game since the start of last season and has topped 100 yards seven times in his last 14 games.
Now, let’s get back to K-State. As noted, they looked lucky to leave Tulane with a win. The defense got torched, and on offense, the line looked a little rough at times. It sounds like the two starters they were missing on the O-line are still not practicing at this point.
Kansas State is expected to be a contender in the Big 12, but they have a lot of work to do if they want to get there. And while this isn’t officially a conference game (it was scheduled before Arizona left the Pac 12), it is a good resume game. I think Arizona is a live dog here and the game will be closer than the line suggests.
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Arizona vs Kansas State odds
Arizona vs Kansas State live odds
Arizona vs Kansas State opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +7 | Kansas State -7
- Moneyline: Arizona +235 | Kansas State -290
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 | Under 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Arizona vs Kansas State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas State opened this matchup favored by a touchdown at home and they have seen the early action with the line moving to 7.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Arizona went 5-0 ATS as an underdog when Fifita was playing last season and won three of those games outright.
- It's the total that's seen the majority of the action to this point, moving up three points since opening at 56.5.
- As noted, getting on this number early was important, and I would still lean toward the Over at the current 59.5. My one hesitation is that Kansas State may turn to the running game, including Avery Johnson, to control the clock and keep the ball out of Fifita's hands as much as possible.
Arizona vs Kansas State betting trend to know
Arizona has covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games for +5.70 Units and a 43% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona vs Kansas State.
Arizona vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Friday, 9-13-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Arizona vs Kansas State latest injuries
Arizona vs Kansas State weather
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