The Philadelphia Phillies appeared to be getting their season back on track over the weekend, but after their four-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday, a disheartening 3-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves followed on Tuesday.
Now they’ll look to pick up the pieces in a pitching matchup we’ve seen twice already this season between Aaron Nola and Max Fried. With runs galore in each of those games, should we expect both offenses to turn up again?
Let's get into the latest MLB odds and make some Phillies vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, August 21.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Phillies moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies have long been the ire of Max Fried. He’s struggled with a poor 4.17 ERA against his division rival in his career, and after they torched him in last year’s postseason, they brought eight runs across the plate in 6 2/3 innings vs. the southpaw.
Aaron Nola, meanwhile, owns a tidier 3.61 ERA in his career against the Atlanta Braves but did yield six earned runs on 11 hits during the first week of the season. He’d rebound with a quality start last month, and in doing so he earned a second win in three tries against the Braves.
These teams have so much familiarity with each other, which is why it’s imperative to look at the state of both offenses here. We know that, at their best, each team can score runs on these pitchers — but the Braves are hardly at their best.
After losing Ronald Acuna, Jr. for the season and Ozzie Albies for a couple of months, Austin Riley became the latest Atlanta bat to go down with a brutal injury after breaking his hand this week. So, there are now three big bats missing from this team which has been struggling to match its elite pace from the past two seasons.
Atlanta is somehow sixth in wRC+ over the past week amidst all the chaos, but it’s hit just .253. That doesn’t bode overly well against Nola, a hurler who has done a decent job of pitching to contact this season.
Runs have been hard to come by over the past two games for Atlanta, which has scored just six over that time, and the Phillies haven’t been much better with seven of their own in the last two as they search for consistency at the plate.
Still, this is a team that’s hit .313 over the past week with an improved strikeout rate and looks the better of the two offenses — especially when you factor in health. I’d give Philly the edge here with Nola’s recent track record against the Braves, who are headed for yet another downturn offensively.
Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Marcell Ozuna 2+ total bases
Trea Turner 2+ total bases
This is a fun parlay to craft with so many batter-versus-pitcher numbers to go off. First, I’ll take the best healthy hitter on the Braves who also owns the best expected numbers against Nola, which is Marcell Ozuna.
The Big Bear has owned the Phillies in his career, hitting .280 and slugging .473, and his solo shot on Tuesday gave him six hits in seven games versus Philly this season with four homers and a double. He owns a solid .262 xBA and a .464 xSLG against Nola in his career and has taken him deep four times in 60 at-bats.
Then, we’ll go with the suddenly-hot Trea Turner for two total bases. He’s 17-for-43 against Fried in his career with three doubles and three extra-base hits for a splendid .395 average and .674 slugging percentage. The expected numbers back up the results, and he’s been on fire over the past week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Phillies vs Braves live odds
Phillies vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +106 | Atlanta -115
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 | Atlanta -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves opened at about -120 before this game moved down to pick ‘em range at most books.
- Atlanta has accounted for just 21% of the bets and 13% of the moneyline handle at DraftKings.
- The total opened at 8, and after moving up to 8.5 it was bet down to the opening line and has since moved down to 7.5 with a ton of action, which might move this to a flat 7 at first pitch.
- With all that said, 47% of the tickets and 58% of the money is on the Over.
Phillies vs Braves trend
The Braves have hit the Under in 71 of their last 117 games (+24.60 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
Phillies vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSP, BSSO |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (11-6, 3.45 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (7-7, 3.63 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Phillies vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
