MLB Player Props for 7-20: Best Bets for Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, & Framber Valdez

Prop bet #1: Dylan Cease strikeouts

The Guardians strike out at the fourth-lowest rate in the majors, but the strikeouts total of 5.5 for Dylan Cease today still seems too low. Cease is fifth in the majors in strikeout rate (31.9%) and has fanned 8+ batters in four of his last five starts.

The fireballer has been a bit inconsistent this season but he gets to face a Cleveland lineup that has been ice-cold. The Guardians are averaging just 3.5 runs per game with an OPS of .637 in their last 10 contests. Their lineup overperformed for much of the season and the fact that they rank last in the majors in hard-hit rate (35.2%) and second-last in barrel rate (6.2%) doesn't bode well for future success.

With online models projecting 6.9 strikeouts for Cease today, take the 7+ alternate strikeouts line at +165. 

Dylan Cease prop: Strikeouts milestone 7 (+165 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Shohei Ohtani total bases

After winning two AL MVP awards, Shohei Ohtani is a prohibitive NL MVP odds favorite, and this time solely on his hitting prowess. The Dodgers superstar is slashing .316/.399/.634 and leads the majors with 237 total bases in 95 games. 

The left-handed slugger also hits better at home (slugging .665) and when he has the platoon advantage (.700). He'll have both of those edges today as the Dodgers host the Red Sox with righty Brayan Bello on the mound. 

Bello started the season off sharp but his analytics suggested regression and that has hit him in a big way. Since the start of May, Bello has pitched to a 6.29 ERA with an OBA of .306. Bello relies on three pitches; a subpar sinker, a changeup, and a slider. Ohtani crushes all three of those offerings, slugging .662 against sinkers, .561 against changeups, and an incredible .857 versus sliders. 

Betting models are projecting as high as 3.4 total bases for Ohtani tonight, which makes the Over 1.5 TB a bargain at -115.

Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Framber Valdez outs

The Astros are sending Framber Valdez to the mound for today's game against the Mariners. The southpaw has been solid, pitching to a 3.66 ERA through 16 starts and he's been even better lately, posting a 3.02 ERA in eight outings since the beginning of June. 

The Mariners are last in the majors in batting average (.218) while ranking 28th in OPS (.665). They are also plating just 2.41 runs per game through the first six innings, with that number dipping to 2.20 at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

Valdez has logged at least 18 outs in nine of his last 12 starts and should be able to go at least six innings deep against an offensively-inept Mariners squad.

Framber Valdez prop: Over 17.5 outs (-130 at bet365)