Shohei Ohtani just keeps crushing the ball and my favorite MLB player props for today are backing the superstar slugger in a favorable matchup at home.
My MLB picks for Saturday are also backing Padres hurler Dylan Cease with a plus-money play while betting on Houston's Framber Valdez to have a solid outing. Here are my best free player props for July 20.
MLB props for July 20
- Dylan Cease 7+ strikeouts (+165 at bet365)
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
- Framber Valdez Over 17.5 outs (-130 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Dylan Cease strikeouts
The Guardians strike out at the fourth-lowest rate in the majors, but the strikeouts total of 5.5 for Dylan Cease today still seems too low. Cease is fifth in the majors in strikeout rate (31.9%) and has fanned 8+ batters in four of his last five starts.
The fireballer has been a bit inconsistent this season but he gets to face a Cleveland lineup that has been ice-cold. The Guardians are averaging just 3.5 runs per game with an OPS of .637 in their last 10 contests. Their lineup overperformed for much of the season and the fact that they rank last in the majors in hard-hit rate (35.2%) and second-last in barrel rate (6.2%) doesn't bode well for future success.
With online models projecting 6.9 strikeouts for Cease today, take the 7+ alternate strikeouts line at +165.
Dylan Cease prop: Strikeouts milestone 7 (+165 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Shohei Ohtani total bases
After winning two AL MVP awards, Shohei Ohtani is a prohibitive NL MVP odds favorite, and this time solely on his hitting prowess. The Dodgers superstar is slashing .316/.399/.634 and leads the majors with 237 total bases in 95 games.
The left-handed slugger also hits better at home (slugging .665) and when he has the platoon advantage (.700). He'll have both of those edges today as the Dodgers host the Red Sox with righty Brayan Bello on the mound.
Bello started the season off sharp but his analytics suggested regression and that has hit him in a big way. Since the start of May, Bello has pitched to a 6.29 ERA with an OBA of .306. Bello relies on three pitches; a subpar sinker, a changeup, and a slider. Ohtani crushes all three of those offerings, slugging .662 against sinkers, .561 against changeups, and an incredible .857 versus sliders.
Betting models are projecting as high as 3.4 total bases for Ohtani tonight, which makes the Over 1.5 TB a bargain at -115.
Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Framber Valdez outs
The Astros are sending Framber Valdez to the mound for today's game against the Mariners. The southpaw has been solid, pitching to a 3.66 ERA through 16 starts and he's been even better lately, posting a 3.02 ERA in eight outings since the beginning of June.
The Mariners are last in the majors in batting average (.218) while ranking 28th in OPS (.665). They are also plating just 2.41 runs per game through the first six innings, with that number dipping to 2.20 at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
Valdez has logged at least 18 outs in nine of his last 12 starts and should be able to go at least six innings deep against an offensively-inept Mariners squad.
Framber Valdez prop: Over 17.5 outs (-130 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups: