The Colorado Rockies send lefty Austin Gomber to the hill to face the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park tonight. Atlanta will counter with rolling righty Reynaldo Lopez and a lineup set to snap out of a slump at the dish.
Our top Rockies vs. Braves predictions are calling for the Atlanta bats to heat up against Gomber.
Read on for a full breakdown of the game and my MLB picks for Thursday, September 5.
Rockies vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Austin Gomber Over 5.5 hits allowed (-155 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Colorado Rockies starter Austin Gomber has pitched at least six innings and allowed at least six hits in four of his past five starts. He’s got a long leash on the hill, and the veteran lefty ranks second with an 82.5% contact rate allowed to opposing hitters. Additionally, Gomber lacks a swing-and-miss pitch mix with a 58th-ranked 8.3% swinging-strike rate among 61 qualified starters.
It’s a good setup for the Atlanta Braves offense. They’ve posted a healthy .255 batting average against left-handed pitchers this season, and they’re also a huge home favorite with a team total of 4.5 runs for today's game.
The Atlanta bats are also ripe to break out at the dish with an unsustainably low .211 overall batting average and .263 BABIP across the past six games. Those marks significantly trail their respective .241 and .291 rates for the campaign, and facing the soft-tossing Gomber is exactly what the doctor ordered.
Gomber has minus pitch values across the board with an average fastball velocity of just 90.5 mph, per FanGraphs. Additionally, his 10.3% barrel rate is tied for the second-highest mark among qualified starters, and he’s also served up a healthy 41% hard-hit rate. As a result, I expect inflation to his .282 BABIP, especially considering he posted a .310 number across 263 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.
Finally, while pitching home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field does skew Gomber’s numbers, he’s still posted a 5.16 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .295 BABIP on the highway across 265 1/3 innings over his four-year tenure with the Rockies.
Rockies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Austin Gomber Over 5.5 hits allowed
Marcell Ozuna 2+ H+R+RBI
Ramon Laureano 2+ H+R+RBI
I’m targeting a pair of right-handed Atlanta bats with high-end numbers against lefties to fill out this same-game parlay, and Marcell Ozuna and Ramon Laureno have feasted on southpaws. As highlighted, Gomber is anything but a matchup nightmare, and he’s surrendered a healthy .348 wOBA to right-handed hitters since joining the Rockies.
| vs. LHP | wOBA | OBP | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna | .399 | .410 | .192 |
| Ramon Laureano | .505 | .460 | .326 |
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockies vs Braves odds
Rockies vs Braves live odds
Rockies vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Colorado +230 | Atlanta -280
- Run line: Colorado +1.5 (+105) | Atlanta -1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100)| Under 8.5 (-120)
Rockies vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves opened as a -260 favorite at Pinnacle, and the number has moved to -268 as of Thursday morning.
- Atlanta is an even larger favorite at bet365, with the Braves still at the opening -280 chalk after briefly testing -290 early Thursday morning.
- Both Pinnacle and bet365 opened with 8.5 totals for this game, and both shops have since dropped the number to 8.0 with the higher vig on the Over.
Rockies vs Braves trend
Austin Gomber has pitched at least six innings and allowed at least six hits in four of his past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Braves.
Rockies vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | COLR, Bally Sports South |
| Rockies starting pitcher: | Austin Gomber (4-10, 4.69 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (8-4, 2.00 ERA) |
Rockies vs Braves latest injuries
Rockies vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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