The San Diego Padres pulled off an impressive comeback win over the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday night, erasing an early 5-0 deficit en route to a 6-5 victory.
The Padres completely taxed their bullpen in the process, which is one of the reasons my Tigers vs. Padres predictions include backing starter Martin Perez to give San Diego some length on home soil.
Let’s dive deeper into the matchup with my MLB picks for Thursday, September 5.
Tigers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Martin Perez Over 15.5 outs recorded (-125 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It was an all-hands-on-deck approach for the San Diego Padres in their extra innings victory on Wednesday. Yu Darvish failed to complete three innings in his return to the rotation, putting an awful lot on the plate of the bullpen as a result.
The Padres used seven different relief pitchers, six of whom threw at least 16 pitches. Padres manager Mike Shildt will no doubt be hoping to better preserve his bullpen against the Detroit Tigers in the series finale. Enter Martin Perez.
Perez has pitched fairly well since being acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s conceded two runs or fewer in four of six starts, struggling only against the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins, both of whom rank Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season. It’s more than reasonable to suffer hiccups against those offenses.
Although the Tigers have been better of late, they haven’t fared well against lefties this year. They sit 24th in OPS and 27th in home runs, and have hit just .237 on the season — not great.
Perez faced the Tigers earlier in the season and put forth one of his best efforts, throwing eight innings of one-run ball on April 9. I don’t know that I’d expect Perez to replicate those numbers, but he should be able to hold his own once again.
San Diego has given Perez rope to chew up innings, as he’s averaging 87 pitches per start this year. I’d expect the leash to be even longer coming off a game where the team had to use eight different arms.
Tigers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Martin Perez Over 15.5 outs recorded
Luis Arraez 1+ hits
Casey Mize not to record a win
Along with backing Perez to pitch into the sixth inning, I like the idea of getting behind one of the best contact hitters in the sport and fading a mediocre pitcher who just returned to the rotation.
Luis Arraez averages 1.3 hits per game and has picked up at least one hit in 75% of his games this season. He owns a .335 batting average against right-handed pitchers and Casey Mize allows a good batting average vs. hitters at both sides of the plate.
Fading Mize to record a win is pretty simple. He’s won only two of 17 starts and now faces a lethal Padres team that ranks second in wRC+ and third in OBP with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers.
Those are truly remarkable outputs considering impact bats like Arraez, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Boegarts have all missed at least 40 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tigers vs Padres odds
Tigers vs Padres live odds
Tigers vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit +135 | San Diego -160
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-155) | San Diego -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Tigers vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been any notable moneyline movement at bet365 or Pinnacle as of Thursday morning.
- The Padres have hit the moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI).
- We are seeing a lean come in on the Under. bet365 opened at -105 on Under 8.5 but the number now sits at -115.
Tigers vs Padres trend
Luis Arraez has at least one hit in seven of his last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Padres.
Tigers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Detroit, SDPA |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Casey Mize (2-6, 4.36 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Martin Perez (4-5, 4.71 ERA) |
Tigers vs Padres latest injuries
Tigers vs Padres weather
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