Atlanta Braves ace Chris Sale is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award, and that makes his MLB player props tough to play. But we're going to get around those steep lines by fading one of his opposing batters today instead in the Rockies' Charlie Blackmon.
I'm also betting on Blue Jays superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and red-hot Mets pitcher David Peterson with my best free MLB prop picks for Tuesday, September 3.
MLB props for September 3
- Blackmon Under 1.5 H+R+RBI (-155 at bet365)
- Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
- Peterson Over 16.5 outs (-130 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Charlie Blackmon Under 1.5 H+R+RBI
All batters benefit from playing at Coors Field but Charlie Blackmon's hitting splits are even more extreme than most. Last year the Colorado Rockies outfielder had a slugging percentage of just .329 on the road compared to .522 at home. He's been even worse away from home this year, slashing just .209/.282/.281.
The left-handed Blackmon has a brutal road matchup today against Atlanta Braves All-Star southpaw Chris Sale. Sale has a sizzling 2.58 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP through 25 starts and he holds left-handed hitters to a BA of just .198. The Braves also have a strong bullpen with their relievers ranking third in the majors in ERA (3.31) and WHIP (1.19).
Take the Under 1.5 on Blackmon's hits, runs, and RBIs prop today.
Prop bet #2: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is slashing .324/.397/.554 while ranking seventh in the majors with 291 total bases through 136 games. The four-time All-Star has been on fire lately, slashing .382/.441/.747 over his last 60 games.
Today, Vladdy Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays will be hosting the Philadelphia Phillies and struggling rookie Tyler Phillips. Phillips had an excellent 1.80 ERA in four starts in July but considering his poor Statcast analytics and his ugly 5.54 ERA at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, regression was inevitable.
That regression hit big time in August when the righty pitched to a 13.91 ERA in three starts and was sent back to the minors. Despite failing to impress in the minors he's getting his second shot at the bigs, and facing an elite hitter like Guerrero on the road will be a nightmare.
Prop bet #3: David Peterson Over 16.5 outs
David Peterson is putting together a solid season for the New York Mets, going 8-1 with a 2.83 ERA and an OBA of .242 through 16 starts. Peterson has been red-hot over the last month, pitching to a 1.86 ERA with an OBA of .216 across six starts in August.
Today, Peterson and the Mets host the Boston Red Sox. Although Boston has a highly-productive lineup, it's stacked with six left-handed batters, which puts many of them at a platoon disadvantage against Peterson. That has resulted in them ranking a modest 17th in the majors in batting average (.244) against southpaws.
The O/U on Peterson's outs today is set at just 16.5, even though he has logged at least 18 outs in five of his last six starts while posting at least 21 outs in his previous three outings.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
