Welcome to the latest edition of the MLB Power Rankings. We didn't see much movement this time around — which you'd expect as we draw closer to the season's end — but the changes we did see are substantial (the Braves surpassing the Mets, for example).
But let's talk about the Los Angeles Dodgers' continued dominance for a moment.
They've widened the gap from the rest of the back for the third consecutive week and look as close to an NL Champion shoo-in as you can in August. They are the only team in baseball to allow fewer than 400 runs and by a relatively large margin.
Our numbers give them the best offense by a slim margin, but, again, their pitching has genuinely separated them from the pack. The pitching staff has a radius rating of .217 and — impressively — they have the best opponent expecting batting average in the league at .217, precisely where they finished a season ago. We haven't mentioned it previously, but with Tony Gonsolin leading this pitching accession for L.A., his Cy Young odds of +500 on FanDuel look appealing.
I suppose the biggest story in baseball over the past week is Albert Pujols and how he's been able to turn back the clock. A Triple Crown contender? To get to 700 home runs? It's all possible for Albert, which feels crazy to say. But, consider that over five games in mid-August, Pujols went 9-for-16 with five home runs and 11 RBIs. Our numbers still have concerns about St. Louis' pitching, but ignoring their bats is tough. We told you two articles ago that the Cardinals to win the Central was the Best Bet in baseball, and that appears to be coming to fruition.
Following last week's rankings, let's take a look at this fresh batch to see where all 32 teams stand:
MLB Power Rankings: Week of August 25
| Rank | Team (Radius) | Last Week's Rank | Record | World Series odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers (.709) | 1 | 86-37 | +350 |
| 2 | New York Yankees (.627) | 2 | 76-48 | +450 |
| 3 | Houston Astros (.623) | 3 | 80-45 | +425 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves (.601) | 5 | 78-48 | +850 |
| 5 | New York Mets (.601) | 4 | 79-46 | +550 |
| 6 | St. Louis Cardinals (.560) | 7 | 71-53 | +2,800 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies (.557) | 6 | 69-55 | +3,500 |
| 8 | Toronto Blue Jays (.541) | 9 | 67-55 | +1,300 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays (.526) | 12 | 68-55 | +3,500 |
| 10 | San Diego Padres (.526) | 8 | 68-58 | +2,000 |
| 11 | Milwaukee Brewers (.514) | 10 | 65-58 | +4,000 |
| 12 | Seattle Mariners (.513) | 13 | 67-57 | +3,500 |
| 13 | Minnesota Twins (.510) | 11 | 62-60 | +8,000 |
| 14 | Cleveland Guardians (.509) | 15 | 66-56 | +5,500 |
| 15 | San Francisco Giants (.492) | 14 | 61-62 | +35,000 |
| 16 | Baltimore Orioles (.485) | 16 | 64-59 | +15,000 |
| 17 | Chicago White Sox (.485) | 17 | 63-61 | +5,000 |
| 18 | Texas Rangers (.480) | 19 | 57-67 | +200,000 |
| 19 | Boston Red Sox (.474 | 18 | 60-64 | +25,000 |
| 20 | Arizona Diamondbacks (.447) | 21 | 56-67 | +200,000 |
| 21 | Miami Marlins (.440 | 22 | 54-70 | +200,000 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Angels (.436) | 20 | 52-72 | +200,000 |
| 23 | Chicago Cubs (.431) | 23 | 54-70 | +200,000 |
| 24 | Colorado Rockies (.409) | 24 | 54-71 | +200,000 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds (.399) | 25 | 48-74 | +200,000 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals (.388) | 26 | 51-75 | +200,000 |
| 27 | Detroit Tigers (.370) | 27 | 48-77 | +200,000 |
| 28 | Oakland Athletics (.354) | 29 | 46-79 | +200,000 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh Pirates (.348) | 28 | 47-77 | +200,000 |
| 30 | Washington Nationals (.347) | 30 | 42-83 | +200,000 |
World Series odds via DraftKings.
Compare updated World Series futures before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Biggest Risers
Tampa Bay Rays (9)
Admittedly, it was probably silly of me to write the Rays off, but I did. Now they are jumping three spots in this week's Power Rankings and cracking the Top 10. They have won eight of their last 10 games and have closed the gap between them and the New York Yankees to just 7.5 in the AL East.
The wins help, but what's given them the most significant boost in our rankings is their Win Expectancy. It's higher than teams such as the San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins. Not only that, but it's directly in line with their actual record. That says we should continue to expect this late-season push from Tampa because what Kevin Cash & Co. are doing is very sustainable.
Cleveland Guardians (14)
Some teams made bigger jumps in this week's Power Rankings, but we need to talk about the Cleveland Guardians. They've made one of the bigger jumps in overall radius and now have a four-game lead in the AL Central. What's most impressive is they've had some problematic pitching issues but continue to pump out wins.
They are a unique team. They don't hit balls hard — in fact, they are last in hard-hit rate — but they also are nearly impossible to strike out, ranking last in whiff rate and first in chase contact. What Cleveland does nightly is put balls into play, constantly putting pressure on pitchers to execute, and that's massive, especially when you can do it at the elite rate they do.
The @CleGuardians are winning games with their own style of fundamental baseball ????@markdero7 dives into the AL Central leaders and their main keys to success as we near September.#MLBCentral | #ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/eZfNSZ3bLn
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 25, 2022
Biggest Fallers
San Diego Padres (10)
It feels like it's time to start worrying about the Padres. The Fernando Tatis Jr. PED suspension has created unnecessary locker room unrest, the acquisition of closer Josh Hader has mainly been a disaster, and they've lost six of their last 10.
So is the team "good"?
???? Some off-day thoughts on the Padres’ offense, the Wild Card race, Josh Hader and Fernando Tatis Jr.
— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) August 25, 2022
It’s the latest Padres Beat Report ?? pic.twitter.com/faLyMR9azn
Sure, I still think so, but from a very tangible numbers perspective, there are concerns. Perhaps the most straightforward issue is an SOS that ranks in the bottom half of baseball paired with an Expected Win Percentage that says, essentially, "this is who they are."
Los Angeles Angels (22)
Angels fans, I want to stop talking about you probably as much as you want to stop hearing about you, but we have to mention it. The Halos have dropped eight of their last 10 and, for some reason, are bringing Mike Trout back from injury. There hasn't been a more disappointing team in baseball this season (or the past several seasons, if I'm being honest).
What's striking about the Angels is their struggle to make contact. They rank last in zone contact, fifth to last in chase contact, and they've maintained these ranks all while continuing to swing less overall as the season has progressed.
There's not much to say here. Continue to bet the opponent strikeout prop Over on a nightly basis. It's been profitable.
Power Rankings methodology
Chris Hatfield's MLB Power Rankings are based heavily on the Pythagorean Theorem, pioneered by Bill James.
This process estimates the percentage of games a team should win and, therefore, where they fall in line in the MLB hierarchy. After that, he adds some secret sauce to develop a team's "radius," which includes a formula comprised of a team's collective expected ERA, run value, and wOBA, among other items.
This process not only attempts to show you how one formula views the landscape, but also which team has the best value to win the World Series vs. oddsmakers' expectations.
Through various sims, he finds the implied probability of one team achieving postseason success to help readers like yourself cash tickets. Just as importantly, Chris’ MLB Power Rankings are not a subjective list — and do not reflect odds between two teams in a given matchup.
