Welcome to the third edition of the MLB Power Rankings. This past weekend featured tons of movement in the middle of the list.
Most of the teams in that grouping were tightly packed based on their radius in last week's edition, so this was bound to happen at some point. We also witnessed a lot of parity among the teams towards the bottom of the board.
The story in baseball for the second straight week has been the Seattle Mariners. They are one of the more significant risers in the rankings thanks to a 14-game winning streak powered by the team's impressive young talent.
Finally, we've seen some separation between the two top teams and the rest of the pack. At first, it may go unnoticed, but the gap between second and third is the largest it's ever been.
Could the World Series come down to a West Coast vs. East Coast duel? You can bet that exact matchup at FanDuel for +515.
Let's examine this week's MLB Power Rankings below:
MLB Power Rankings: Week of July 20
| Rank | Team (Radius) | Last Week's Rank | Record | World Series odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Yankees (.702) | 1 | 64-28 | +400 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers (.682) | 2 | 60-30 | +380 |
| 3 | Houston Astros (.643) | 3 | 59-32 | +500 |
| 4 | New York Mets (.604) | 5 | 58-35 | +700 |
| 5 | Atlanta Braves (.596) | 4 | 56-38 | +800 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies (.578) | 7 | 49-43 | +3,500 |
| 7 | Minnesota Twins (.562) | 6 | 50-44 | +5,000 |
| 8 | San Francisco Giants (.553) | 12 | 48-43 | +5,000 |
| 9 | Toronto Blue Jays (.552) | 13 | 50-43 | +1,500 |
| 10 | San Diego Padres (.546) | 9 | 52-42 | +2,200 |
| 11 | Seattle Mariners (.545) | 15 | 51-42 | +5,000 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay Rays (.543) | 14 | 51-41 | +2,800 |
| 13 | St. Louis Cardinals (.541) | 11 | 50-44 | +4,000 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Brewers (.540) | 10 | 50-43 | +1,700 |
| 15 | Boston Red Sox (.536) | 9 | 48-45 | +3,500 |
| 16 | Cleveland Guardians (.498) | 18 | 46-44 | +15,000 |
| 17 | Chicago White Sox (.497) | 21 | 46-46 | +3,000 |
| 18 | Los Angeles Angels (.496) | 20 | 39-53 | +20,000 |
| 19 | Miami Marlins (.495) | 17 | 43-48 | +20,000 |
| 20 | Baltimore Orioles (.490) | 19 | 46-46 | +30,000 |
| 21 | Texas Rangers (.490) | 16 | 41-49 | +100,000 |
| 22 | Colorado Rockies (.450) | 24 | 43-50 | +200,000 |
| 23 | Arizona Diamondbacks (.445) | 22 | 40-52 | +200,000 |
| 24 | Chicago Cubs (.435) | 23 | 35-57 | +200,000 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds (.406) | 25 | 34-57 | +200,000 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals (.405) | 30 | 36-56 | +200,000 |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Pirates (.395) | 27 | 39-54 | +200,000 |
| 28 | Detroit Tigers (.392) | 26 | 37-55 | +100,000 |
| 29 | Washington Nationals (.371) | 28 | 31-63 | +200,000 |
| 30 | Oakland Athletics (.366) | 29 | 32-61 | +200,000 |
World Series odds via DraftKings.
Compare updated World Series futures before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Biggest Risers
Seattle Mariners (11)
I'm running out of superlatives to describe the Seattle Mariners (+4). They've rattled off 14 straight victories, but it's the fashion in which they're winning that has been truly awe-inspiring. Multiple games have featured late come-from-behind wins and exciting individual plays.
Seattle is posting a +36 run differential - third best in the AL - and has lost just one game on the road since June 26. The Mariners also currently have the most exciting player in Julio Rodriguez, who advanced to the final of the Home Run Derby in his All-Star debut.
Julio Rodriguez 32 HOME RUNS ??
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 19, 2022
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/h99jHYPxaO
According to the Mariners PR, Rodriguez is the first player in MLB history to put up 15-plus home runs, 50-plus RBI, and 20-plus stolen bases through his first 90 career games. Not only did the 21-year-old win AL Rookie of the Month honors in May and June, but he also captured the AL Player of the Week award on July 5 after hitting .360 with two doubles, a triple, three home runs, and six RBI.
San Francisco Giants (8)
Given the non-subjective style of my Power Rankings, there are some cases where they may have someone significantly higher than where my personal bias lies.
That's true for at least one team in the San Francisco Giants (+4). However, the Giants did take two of three off the Milwaukee Brewers, and few teams offer the same amount of depth from top to bottom.
This game was not over
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) July 16, 2022
(#SFGiants x @peetscoffee) pic.twitter.com/pwkBCQi7Ok
One reason for San Francisco's big boost up the rankings is its pitching staff, which has produced a wOBA of .312 — the sixth best in baseball. The Giants have received especially good production from Logan Webb, who has raced out to a 9-3 start and is posting a career-best 2.83 ERA in his fourth year in the Bay.
Looking for even more good news? San Francisco is among several teams rumored to be in the running for Nationals superstar Juan Soto. That deal may not come to fruition, but bettors should expect the Giants to be busy at the trade deadline nonetheless.
Biggest Fallers
Boston Red Sox (15)
Did anyone have a worse last week before the All-Star break than the Boston Red Sox (-6)?
First, they saw Chris Sale, who recently returned from an injury, breaking the pinky on his pitching hand after getting hit by a line drive by Aaron Hicks. He'll be sidelined again in for an undetermined amount of time, although he does believe he'll return later this season. Then they lost their last two games by a combined score of 17-3.
To make matters worse, both losses came at the hands of their arch-rivals, the New York Yankees. As a result, Boston has now lost six out of its last seven outings.
I don’t even know what to say. Just cannot possibly get worse.
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) July 17, 2022
Miami Marlins (19)
The Miami Marlins (-2) dropped two spots after getting swept by the Philadelphia Phillies and scoring just one run throughout that series. Miami has become one of the more vanilla teams in baseball. They have wasted a pitching staff that has produced the ninth lowest batting average to opposing hitters in baseball with an offense that can't do much.
MLB's worst outfields by fWAR
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 19, 2022
1. Detroit Tigers (-1.0)
2. Oakland A's (-0.3)
3. Miami Marlins (0.5)
T-4. Boston Red Sox (0.6)
T-4. Cincinnati Reds (0.6)
The Marlins have the fifth lowest wOBA in baseball and average the sixth lowest runs per game. In fact, aside from Garrett Cooper, no other everyday player is hitting above .265. At 43-48 and 14 games out of first place in the NL East, the Marlins could become sellers at the trade deadline unless things improve quickly.
Power Rankings methodology
Chris Hatfield's MLB Power Rankings are based heavily on the Pythagorean Theorem, pioneered by Bill James.
This process estimates the percentage of games a team should win and, therefore, where they fall in line in the MLB hierarchy. After that, he adds some secret sauce to develop a team's "radius," which includes a formula comprised of a team's collective expected ERA, run value, and wOBA, among other items.
This process not only attempts to show you how one formula views the landscape, but also which team has the best value to win the World Series vs. oddsmakers' expectations.
Through various sims, he finds the implied probability of one team achieving postseason success to help readers like yourself cash tickets. Just as importantly, Chris’ MLB Power Rankings are not a subjective list — and do not reflect odds between two teams in a given matchup.
