A battle is brewing in the AL West where the Houston Astros are hot on the heels of the Texas Rangers for first place in the division. If the 'Stros want to claim their sixth division title in the last seven years they'll need six-time Silver Slugger recipient Jose Altuve to keep mashing.
We're betting on him to continue his red-hot play today while also backing a Rockies slugger in the thin air of Coors Field and expecting Cardinals Miles Mikolas to put together a sold start.
Here are my best free MLB player prop picks for Saturday, August 19.
MLB props for August 19
- McMahon Over 1.5 TBs
- Mikolas Over 17.5 outs
- Altuve Over 1.5 total bases
Picks made on August 19 at 11:55 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Bah Gawd, it's Mr. McMahon!
The Colorado Rockies have struggled at the plate this year but one player that has produced is third baseman Ryan McMahon. McMahon leads the team with 21 home runs and an OPS of .807 while ranking in the Top 25th percentile of the majors in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate.
Although he went hitless in six straight games earlier this month, McMahon has snapped out of that slump, going 4-for-8 with a pair of dingers over the last two games.
McMahon and the Rockies will be facing off against White Sox starter Jesse Scholtens today. Scholtens has an impressive 3.20 ERA in 56 1/3 innings this season but he's a 29-year-old rookie who is probably better suited for a role out of the bullpen.
His peripherals are far less impressive with a strikeout and whiff rate that rank in the Bottom 15th percentile plus an average exit velocity and expected slugging percentage that sit in the bottom half. Factor in Coors Field's elevation and there's a reason MLB odds have the Rockies team total set at 5.5.
The left-handed McMahon slugs .519 at home and boasts a .538 slugging percentage against righties like Scholtens. With the Rockies expected to have a productive night at the plate, expect McMahon to be a big contributor and back the Over 1.5 on his total bases.
Ryan McMahon prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Prop bet #2: Mikolas goes for Miles and Miles
Miles Mikolas has been up-and-down for the St. Louis Cardinals this year with a 4.27 ERA with 1.28 WHIP in 147 2/3 innings.
That said, the veteran has been a reliable innings-eater for St. Louis and has logged more than six innings in all three outings this month. The O/U on Mikolas' outs today is set at 17.5 (with the Over priced at -120) a number he has eclipsed in 13 of his last 18 starts (72.2%).
Mikolas has poor analytics but he shouldn't have too much trouble against a Mets lineup that is just 23rd in the majors in batting average (.237) while ranking 21st in slugging percentage (.402). Expect the veteran to pitch deep enough into this contest to go Over 17.5 outs.
Miles Mikolas prop: Over 17.5 outs (-120 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Altuve's still got it
Houston Astros' Jose Altuve has been plagued by injuries this season but has still been one of the best-hitting second basemen around when healthy and is slashing .318/.416/.530.
His latest setback was an oblique injury that knocked him out of the lineup for three weeks and when he returned to the lineup on July 26 he went 0-for-3. Since then, he's been on fire, batting .419 and slugging .635 over the last 19 games.
Today, the Astros host the Mariners and starting pitcher Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has a solid 3.80 ERA but ranks in the Bottom 25th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Altuve also has a history of mashing against Gilbert, going 8-for-21 with five doubles and a home run in his career against the M's right-hander.
Jose Altuve prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Not intended for use in MA.
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