It’s a lighter day on the diamond with just nine games on the MLB betting board, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
One of the best ways to attack player props is to find guys who are breaking out of slumps before sportsbooks catch on. That is the case with Toronto Blue Jays Daulton Varsho. The Jays outfielder has looked sick at the dish most of the year, but a little adjustment and a matchup against Kyle Gibson could mean a big day at the plate for him.
In arguably the best game on the board the Minnesota Twins host the Texas Rangers. The home side hands the ball to Pablo Lopez who has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, but is "hot" enough to mow down a very good Rangers lineup?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player prop picks below.
MLB props for August 24
- Tucker Over 1.5 TBs
- Varsho 2+ TBs
- Lopez Over 6.5 Ks
Picks made on August 24 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Tuck Me In
The Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros close out their important four-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Astros hold the second wild card spot but are just 1.5 games up on the team in fourth place. While the Red Sox enter today’s matchup four games back of a postseason spot.
So, to call these games important would be an understatement. The finale will see two young right-handers square off as Brayan Bello toes the rubber against J.P. France.
While both youngsters have tough matchups in this one, I’ll be focusing on Bello. The right-hander has been very reliable for the Red Sox this season, but he’s starting to show a bit of regression. Which isn’t unexpected considering this is the most major league innings he’s pitched in a season.
Bello’s ERA has jumped up to 4.66 over his last eight starts, and is surrendering a .295 batting average, a .865 OPS, and is surrendering 10.5 hits per nine innings over that stretch.
That doesn’t bode overly well going against an Astros lineup that seems to be peaking at the right time, and going against like Kyle Tucker specifically. The Astros’ outfielder is having another outstanding season, hitting .293 with a .894 OPS with 25 home runs and 24 stolen bases.
Bello also has a tougher time with left-handed hitters, who get to him for a .288 average and a .832 OPS. Tucker has also bumped his OPS up to 1.019 over his last nine games and has gone Over 1.5 total bases five times in his last eight games started. At a +115 price tag, I like the value of Tucker to go Over in this matchup against Bello and the BoSox.
Kyle Tucker prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Varsho's Hot Bat
From an offensive standpoint, to say Daulton Varsho’s first season with the Toronto Blue Jays has been a rocky one would be an understatement.
Luckily, the Blue Jays outfielder has been an elite defender, but he has been battling his swing all season long. He is hitting just .222 with a .671 OPS for the year. However, Varsho has made a little adjustment to his swing recently, incorporating a toe tap, and he is starting to see some positive results.
Varsho is hitting .333 with a 1.162 OPS which includes three doubles and three home runs over his last nine games. And not for nothing, he has as many walks (five) as strikeouts over that stretch.
After getting shut out by the Baltimore Orioles last night, the Jays will need his bat as they play the rubber match of this three-game set on Thursday night.
The Orioles hand the ball to Kyle Gibson for this matchup, and Varsho is one of the few Blue jays with solid numbers against the veteran right-hander. This is a little odd considering Gibson owns a 4.54 expected ERA and has an opponent-expected batting average in the 20th percentile.
Varsho is 4-11 in his career vs. Gibson with a double and a dinger. That’s good for .369 xBA and a .706 xSLG. Gibson has also had more trouble with left-handed hitters all season long, tagging him for a .307 batting average and an .841 OPS.
Varsho has hit two or more total bases five times in his last nine games. At +140, there is some solid value in him to hit that number once again.
Daulton Varsho prop: 2+ total bases (+145 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Pablo Paints the Corners
One of the best games on the board tonight sees the Texas Rangers visit the Minnesota Twins in a matchup of American League division leaders. The Rangers have been rolling on offense all season, but they’ll have their hands full with Twins starter Pablo Lopez.
Lopez has looked stronger and stronger as the season has progressed and he is on fire right now. The right-hander is pitching to a 1.22 ERA while limiting opponents to a .595 OPS and striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings over his last six starts.
Overall, Lopez’s advanced numbers are great. His 3.09 expected ERA is among the best in baseball. His .216 expected batting average, .348 expected slugging percentage, and his 29.9 strikeout rate are all in the 79th percentile or better.
While Texas has had one of the best lineups all season, the team has looked a little more mortal at the dish of late. The Rangers rank 14th in batting average, ninth in OPS, and 10th in wRC+ since the start of August. As I said, still solid but not the other-worldly numbers they were putting up earlier in the season.
They also don’t have great numbers against Lopez. Current Rangers with at-bats against him are combining for a .183 xBA, a .327 xSLG, and a 24% K-rate. On top of all that, the Rangers have the ninth-highest K-rate this month, sitting at 25%.
Lopez’s strikeout prop is sitting at 6.5 for this matchup. Is pitching well and has one of the longest leashes among big league starters at 95.6 pitches per start. He’s gone Over this number in 10 of his last 12 starts. And even against a tough team like the Rangers, considering the way he is pitching, I’m betting he does so again tonight.
Pablo Lopez prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-122 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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