Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Dane Dunning Unwraps the Twinkies

Prop bet #1: Thomas the TB engine

Washington Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas had a rough series in the Bronx, getting one hit in the series opener before going hitless in 10 straight at-bats. However, tonight's matchup vs. the Miami Marlins and lefty Braxton Garrett should be the perfect remedy to get him back on track.

Thomas had multi-hit games in four of his previous five games prior to that Yankees series and he's hitting a robust .348 for the season against southpaws. Plus, Garrett is a guy who gives up a lot of hits and hard contact, with RHB doing the most damage against his changeup and curveball — and Thomas is hitting .348 against changeups from LHP and .267 on curves.

He also sits in the 97th percentile in sprint speed, adding the ability to leg out an extra base or two against a contact pitcher. It's also worth noting that his one hit vs. the Yanks was a double off lefty Carlos Rodon, so he's recorded 2+ total bases in 10 of 16 games prior to his two recent goose eggs.

Lane Thomas prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

Prop bet #2: Kut down to size

Facing the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is no easy task for ace starters, so — I'll just come out with it — I don't see a particularly long night in store for middle-of-the-rotation arm Kutter Crawford, so I'm looking towards the Under on his outs prop of 15.5 tonight.

The Boston Red Sox righty has failed to reach 16 outs in four of his last six starts — with the successes coming vs. two of the baseball's worst offenses this month in the Yankees and Giants. Plus, he has not topped 12 outs in six of his seven home starts this season... with the outlier being a whopping 4 2/3 innings against the (wait for it) pitiful Tigers.

So when the Dodgers — who are fourth in average, sixth in runs, have the fourth-lowest K-rate, and the fifth-best walk rate against righties since July 1 — stroll into Fenway tonight, do we really think he'll record an out into the sixth (or even finish five)?

No, no we do not.

Kutter Crawford prop: Under 15.5 outs (-145)

Prop bet #3: Stone Cold Dunner

I guess Dane Dunning has decided he wants to start striking batters out?

The Texas Rangers righty had a pedestrian 5.92 K/9 in 15 starts from May to July, recording 6+ strikeouts just twice... but it's been a very different story in August.

Dunning has 33 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings this month, good for an 11.57 K/9, while going Over 5.5 total strikeouts in three of those four starts. He's racked up six, 11, and 12 punchouts against the White Sox, As, and Giants — eighth, 10th, and seventh in K-rate against righties since July 1 — while he managed just four Ks vs. the Brewers (25th over that span), so he's doing his damage against whiff-happy lineups.

But guess what? Tonight he faces the Minnesota Twins, who lead the Majors with a 29% strikeout rate against righties over the last two months.

The Twinkies have allowed opposing righty starters to average 6.4 strikeouts and 5 1/3 innings in 13 August matchups, including matchups against Andre Jackson, Alex Faedo, and Reese Olson (both of the latter twice).

They've struggled against mediocre arms, so I love this matchup against a hot pitcher like Dunning.

Dane Dunning prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+125)