Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Corbin's Struggles Continue Against Cincinnati

Prop bet #1: Death, Taxes, and fading Patty

We haven’t checked in on Corbin for a bit, but the Washington Nationals starter continues to throw hittable baseballs for several innings. The embattled southpaw is pitching to a 6.32 expected ERA while surrendering a .517 expected slugging percentage. Those rank all the way in Bottom 4% of the big leagues, and Corbin's .314 opponent-expected batting average is the worst in the majors. 

As a result, he is giving up 11.2 hits per nine innings and will now have to face off against a very tough Cincinnati Reds lineup. 

Cincinnati has basically been a different team since calling up Elly De La Cruz in early June and getting Joey Votto back from injury. The Reds have generally handled left-handers well all season long, and rank sixth in batting average and eighth in OPS when facing southpaws.

The Reds sure gave Corbin plenty of problems the last time they faced back on July 4, as Cincy tagged Corbin with six runs on 10 hits over five innings of work that day.  

Another reason Corbin gives up so many hits is that the Nationals tend to leave him in the game, regardless of his performance. Despite his ugly numbers on the season, Corbin averages 5.72 innings per start.

The left-hander has surrendered seven or more hits in 14 of his 22 starts this season. I like him to go for No. 15 today.

Patrick Corbin prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (-105)

Prop bet #2: Sevy's Slide

Recently, New York Yankees starter Luis Severino said that he felt like he was the worst pitcher in baseball. And honestly, that statement isn’t too far off the mark considering his recent performance. Things won’t get any easier for him as he takes the ball on Friday against the visiting Houston Astros. 

Severino’s month of July is just about as bad as they come. He got lit up for 27 earned runs in just 21 2/3 innings pitched. That works out to an ugly 11.22 ERA. Not surprisingly, that has caused the 29-year-old’s overall numbers to plummet. 

Severino now owns a 6.49 xERA while surrendering a .300 xBA and a .518 xSLG to opposing teams. All of them rank in the Bottom 3% among MLB pitchers.

Tonight, he faces an Astros lineup that is starting to come around. Houston ranks 10th in OPS and 11th in batting average and wRC+ since the start of July. That’s good for 5.04 runs per game over that stretch.

There is just nothing that says Severino is going to pull himself out of this tailspin against one of the more veteran lineups in baseball. He’s surrendered three or more earned runs in eight of his last 10 starts, and I’m betting he makes it nine of 11 tonight.

Luis Severino prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-140)

Prop bet #3: Nootbar Knocks

The St. Louis Cardinals may have waved the white flag on the season with their massive blowout sale at the trade deadline, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some talented players left on the roster. Let’s highlight one of those guys for tonight’s matchup vs. the visiting Colorado Rockies.

That is of course Lars Nootbar. The 25-year-old outfielder has been on fire since coming out of the All-Star break, hitting .349 with a 1.121 OPS in the first 18 games since. He is currently on a six-game hitting streak where he is 11-22 (.500) with five extra-base hits, two walks, and just one strikeout. 

Tonight, he’ll get to dig into the batter's box against the Rockies' Chris Flexen. (Boy, nothing says, “we don’t care,” more than the Rockies’ current rotation). Flexen was a low-leverage long reliever for the Mariners this season, mostly coming in for mop-up duty. And even then, the numbers weren’t encouraging. 

The right-hander is pitching to a 6.74 expected ERA while surrendering a .308 expected batting average and a .506 expected slugging percentage. Unsurprisingly, his first start with Colorado did not go well, allowing six runs (five earned) on four hits and five walks in 3 2/3 innings against Oakland.

Nootbar handles right-handers well and has cashed Over 1.5 total bases five times during this six-game hit streak. I’m betting more bases for Nootbar again tonight.

Lars Nootbar prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125)