It's a rivalry renewed for the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees in the Bronx tonight.
The Yankees are officially in a slump. They have fallen off the pace in the AL East as they sit two games back from first and have lost eight of their last 10 overall. They'll be looking to break out of that slump, but they'll also be looking to get revenge on a surging Boston team that took two of three from them earlier this month.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 5.
Red Sox vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (+125 at BetRivers)
My analysis
What have the New York Yankees done in the last two weeks or so to give you any confidence in betting them at such a large number to beat a good team with momentum? Very little.
Baseball's variance can be odd at times, and the past may not mean nearly as much as in other sports. However, this is a Yankees team in a funk that's making small mistakes and finding creative ways to lose baseball games. I can't bet them; in fact, the best bet for me is to fade them. I'm grabbing the Boston Red Sox moneyline here.
Boston has the better starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees, and he was always destined to regress from what we saw much of last year. We've gotten that regression as Cortes has had issues with any type of power offense. He ranks in the Bottom 20% of the league in barrel rate and average exit velocity. Along with that, he's been below the league average in hard-hit rate. Boston can attack that.
Over the last month, the Red Sox have been different from the team we saw early in the season. This offense is hitting the ball hard right now and, over the last month, ranked in the Top 5 in barrel rate. Cortes has faced teams ranking in the Top 5 of this metric a few times this season, and it often could have gone better. He's allowed three or more runs to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves. The one exception here is holding the Baltimore Orioles scoreless after allowing four earned runs in the first meeting against them. He has yet to see Boston this season, but if form holds, they can knock him around a fair bit.
Meanwhile, Red Sox hurler Tanner Houck can manage the game and keep the Yankees' offense in check.
He's coming off a start against the San Diego Padres in which he allowed seven earned runs and was really shelled. However, before then, he had seven of eight starts allowing two or fewer earned runs. That includes some performances against some fairly powerful offenses.
I'm backing the bounce-back in this spot tonight, which means there's some good value on the Red Sox here. I'd play this to +115.
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
I'm pairing my best bet with Rafael Devers to go over his base total. Cortes loves the fastball; it makes up just Over 75% of his pitching arsenal, and that's good for Devers. He's been the best fastball hitter on the Red Sox by a pretty wide margin, leading the squad in run value and hard-hit rate against that pitch.
Cortes has repeatedly proven that even against the heavyweight players of baseball, he trusts his stuff. I'll take Devers to win a few of those battles and get over his base total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Red Sox vs Yankees live odds
Red Sox vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-180) | New York -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Boston +120 | New York -140
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Red Sox vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- It's been the Yankees' toughest stretch of the season. Two weeks ago, they hadn't been swept all season, and now they've been swept in two of their last three series.
- Boston has been hot lately. They've won seven of their last 10 games and profited +2.9 units for bettors.
- The Red Sox have a slight advantage in this series in recent history, with a 6-4 advantage over the last 10 head-to-head matchups.
- The Yankees have been a big Over team across their last 10 games (8-2).
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 24 of their last 32 games (+14.90 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 7-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, YES |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (7-6, 2.67 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (4-7, 3.51 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
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