Two of the best teams in the National League begin a three-game weekend series on Friday when the Milwaukee Brewers (52-36) travel west to face the Los Angeles Dodgers (53-35).
The stars tend to shine on the biggest stage and I’m focusing on the biggest star of them all in my Brewers vs. Dodger predictions.
Let's get into it with my latest MLB picks for Friday, July 5.
Brewers vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-108 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
There are good baseball players and even great baseball players — and then there’s Shohei Ohtani.
Shohei doesn’t just rake, he destroys the will of opposing pitchers. The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar ranks in the 100th — yes, 100th! — percentile in xBA (.335), xSLG (.674), average exit velocity (95.5 mph), barrel rate (19.5%), and hard-hit percentage (60.5%), while disappointingly ranking only in the 99th percentile in xwOBA (.456). Oh, the shame in that final number.
The super slugger is set to face Aaron Civale, who is making his Milwaukee Brewers debut after being traded from Tampa Bay earlier this week. While the right-hander is a fine pitcher, his 5.07 ERA doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, nor does his 4.69 FIP.
Civale's not a big swing-and-miss guy (33rd percentile whiff rate) and he’s also not great at suppressing hard contact (26th percentile average exit velocity). The 29-year-old has been abused by left-handed hitters, posting an unseemly .500 SLG, 4.92 FIP, 1.60 WHIP, and 4.92 FIP while allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings. That’s concerning news against Ohtani, who has obliterated right-handed pitching to the tune of a 212 wRC+, 1.135 OPS, .712 SLG, and .384 ISO.
If this was a boxing or MMA match, the ruling commission wouldn’t sanction the fight. It’s too clear of a mismatch and there would be one-way traffic only causing pugilistic pleasure for the sick, the twisted, and the sadists. Fortunately, this isn’t a fight and is a baseball game with 16 other players gracing the field, and the pitchers vs. hitter batter will only occur for a few at-bats.
I’m going to bet that Ohtani does damage in those ABs by taking the Over on his total bases prop. He’s averaging 2.6 total bases per game in his last 10 outings, and this is a prime bounce-back opportunity after going just 1-for-7 with no extra-base hits across his previous two games.
Brewers vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Dodgers -1.5
Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 walks
The Dodgers are floundering after losing two straight games, but they’ve typically responded well after a losing effort and are 10-3 in their last 13 games following a defeat.
They have the right pitcher on the bump to righten the ship, as Tyler Glasnow has put himself in the NL Cy Young discussion with a 3.23 ERA and 2.69 FIP. He’s allowed just one earned run in his last two starts at home, striking out 19 batters while allowing just five hits and a walk. Considering L.A.'s bullpen is taxed after two straight games in which it was featured prominently, the Dodgers will need an extended outing from Glasnow tonight.
Across the last 15 days, Milwaukee boasts the third-highest walk rate (10.3%) against right-handed pitching. This should be a lengthy effort from the hurler, which only brings more opportunities for his opposition to draw free passes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Dodgers odds
Brewers vs Dodgers live odds
Brewers vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-135) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+115)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +155 | Los Angeles -185
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Brewers vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- It’s usually a winning day for Big Blue when Glasnow is on the bump, as L.A. is 11-6 in games that he starts.
- The Dodgers' offense has been sputtering lately, hitting the team total Under in 11 of their last 14 games.
- L.A. has cashed the Over in six straight games, while Milwaukee has trended toward the Over for much of the year (47-37 O/U).
Brewers vs Dodgers trend
Ohtani has recorded 2+ total bases in five of his last eight home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers
Brewers vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, SportsNet LA |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (2-6, 5.07 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Tyler Glasnow (8-5, 3.23 ERA) |
Brewers vs Dodgers latest injuries
Brewers vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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