The series opener of this three-game NL East series gets underway tonight with the Atlanta Braves hosting the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park. MLB odds have Atlanta as a moderate -150 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
My Phillies vs. Braves prediction favors the Under, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, July 5.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Right-hander Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, and he should be a good candidate to back. Nola is 9-4 through 17 starts this season, sporting a 3.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even stronger as he boasts a 3.40 xERA and ranks in the 68th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against the Atlanta Braves, a team he is 3-1 against over the past seven meetings with a 3.38 ERA.
Nola is also followed by one of the league’s best bullpens, as Philadelphia’s relievers rank in the Top 5 in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
Meanwhile, left-hander Max Fried gets the ball for the Braves, and he has been just as good as Nola. The 30-year-old southpaw is 7-3 through 16 starts with a commanding 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Like Nola, his analytics are also strong as he ranks in the 88th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts
Phillies moneyline
Nola ranks in the 82nd percentile in chase rate and 59th percentile in strikeout rate. He recorded nine strikeouts in his last outing and has racked up eight or more punchouts in two of his past three starts against Atlanta.
If we are backing Nola to thrive in a low-scoring game, then a correlated outcome would be for Philadelphia to win. While the pitching matchup is likely a wash, the Phillies outrank the Braves in runs scored per game, hits per game, OPS, and home runs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Phillies vs Braves live odds
Phillies vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-190) | Atlanta -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +115 | Atlanta -135
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Phillies vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened as a -135 favorite and has since been bet up to -150
- Given the market's typical trust in Fried, I’m not concerned with this small movement.
- The total opened at 7.5 and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- Considering all the aforementioned variables, I believe the O/U is more likely to dip to 7.0 than increase to 8.0.
Phillies vs Braves trend
Seven or fewer total runs have been plated in nine of Atlanta’s past 11 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves
Phillies vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (9-4, 3.43 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (7-3, 2.91 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Phillies vs Braves weather
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