At this point, I think if you look up run production in the dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Shohei Ohtani's face next to it.
We have never seen anything like this in the history of baseball, and the Los Angeles Angels’ two-way star’s home run to tie the game in the bottom of the seventh inning against the New York Yankees was one of the most electric moments of the season. So, let's see what the MLB odds have in store for his encore.
On top of that, I look at a pair of plus-money total bases props for a couple of American League hitters going against inexperienced starters.
I dive into the markets and bring you my best MLB prop picks below.
MLB props for July 18
- Hays Over 1.5 TBs
- Lowe Over 1.5 TBs
- Ohtani Over 0.5 RBIs
Picks made on July 18 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Hitting the Hays
The Los Angeles Dodgers struck first with a 6-4 victory in their intriguing interleague against the Baltimore Orioles — a matchup of two of the best teams in baseball. Last night it was the Orioles who started a shaky rookie, tonight, it’s the Dodgers' turn as they hand the ball to right-hander Michael Grove.
Grove made the Dodgers’ rotation out of Spring Training, but a rough start, combined with a groin injury, have hindered his development. Since he has returned to the Big Leagues, Grove has been bounced back and forth between starting and being the Dodgers’ long relief man. But the results have basically remained the same.
The right-hander uses mostly a fastball and slider and unfortunately, the fastball is regularly hammered. To the point where Grove is pitching to a 5.09 expected ERA while surrendering a .270 expected batting average and a .470 expected slugging percentage to opponents. All rank in the Bottom 16% of the MLB.
Tonight, he faces off against a really good young Orioles lineup. One of those good young bats is outfielder Austin Hays.
The first-time All-Star is having a great season at the dish. Hays is hitting .309 with a .837 OPS and he has actually been even better against right-handed pitchers this season. The 28-year-old owns a .318 batting average and a .845 OPS when facing righties.
He's also hitting .342 with a .542 slugging percentage against fastballs, which Grove throws 41% of the time. I like the Orioles to strike back tonight with Hays locking in on a couple of those fastballs and go Over his total bases prop at solid plus money.
Austin Hays prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
The Lowe Post
We all know that Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia make the Texas Rangers one of the best lineups in all of baseball. But what makes them truly dangerous is their depth. There's just nowhere for a starting pitcher to breathe.
One of the guys who provide that depth is first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. The silver slugger winner from a season ago is hitting .278 with a .801 OPS and 10 home runs so far this year but he is starting to get into a groove.
The 28-year-old is hitting .302 with a .872 OPS, which includes seven extra-base hits over 13 games since the start of July, and he’ll have a great opportunity to keep that going when he steps into the batter's box tonight against Taj Bradley and the Tampa Bay Rays.
Bradley undoubtedly has potential. You can see it in his stuff and strikeout numbers, but clearly, the Rays would have preferred to not give him so many innings this early in his career. Unfortunately, with all the injuries to the Rays pitching staff, he's been thrust into the rotation.
The 22-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 4.04 expected ERA while surrendering a .247 expected batting average, and a .410 expected slugging percentage to opponents. And when he is getting hit, he’s getting hit hard, ranking in the Bottom 11% in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
With Lowe hitting .287 with a .852 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers I like him to get into one tonight and go Over his 1.5 total bases. He’s gone Over that number in six of his last 12 games.
Nathaniel Lowe prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+160)
No stopping the Sho
Shohei Ohtani means electric run production. I mean, did you see his game-tying home run last night?
we’ve seen him get some decent height before but in terms of vigor and rotation, pretty sure this is the most emphatic bat flip of Shohei Ohtani’s MLB career thus far: pic.twitter.com/vLJOoe6LTL
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) July 18, 2023
Whether or not the Los Angeles Angels two-way star gets traded is the biggest question heading into the August 1 trade deadline. But no matter where he plays, he’s going to mash baseballs.
Ohtani is the American League MVP. Full stop. Maybe even if does get traded to a National League team. He leads the MLB in home runs, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. He’s also on pace to destroy his personal best for RBIs in a season, already driving in 75 runs.
In fact, he has driven in more than a run a game over his last 40 games. It doesn’t hurt that he’s hitting .364 with a 1.372 OPS, including 23 dingers over that stretch. And I’m betting he keeps that up in tonight’s matchup against Domingo German and the New York Yankees.
German threw a perfect game this season, but he’s been far from perfect for the Yankees. The right-hander is unique due to the fact he throws his curveball more than any other pitch. His expected ERA is 4.21 and his .418 expected slugging percentage ranks in the 37th percentile. And his matchup against Ohtani is not a good one.
Ohtani splits vs. righties are ridiculous, hitting .319 with a 1.110 OPS. He also has a .690 expected slugging percentage vs. breaking balls this season.
Give me Ohtani to drive in another run at +160 tonight — something he's done in three straight games.
Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+160)
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