There’s no better way to start a warm summer weekend than by cracking a cold beer and hitting some winners in the MLB odds prop markets. Let’s do both tonight!
It appeared that Lance Lynn’s one good start was a mirage and now he’ll have to deal with the boppers in the Twins lineup. Christian Yelich was found the fountain of youth and his MVP form and will get a chance to keep raking against the Braves. And Framber Valdez will be an innings eater vs. the A’s.
I dig through the markets and bring you my best MLB player props for Friday night below.
MLB props for July 21
- Lynn Over 2.5 ERs
- Yelich Over 1.5 TBs
- Valdez Over 18.5 outs
Picks made on July 21 at 1:25 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Making Lance dance
After a brief reprieve, Chicago White Sox starter Lynn Lynn returned to doing what he does best this season: giving up runs. And I’m betting that it will continue tonight when he takes the mound at Target Field against the Minnesota Twins.
Two starts ago, Lynn had his best outing of the season, shutting out the Toronto Blue Jays on one hit while striking out 11 over seven innings. But that version of Lynn was fleeting, as he surrendered four runs on six hits and three walks to the Atlanta Braves last time out.
It was the seventh time in the last eight games in which he had allowed three or more runs, and in 14 of his last 18 starts overall. That includes a meeting against this same Twins team back on April 11, where he gave up three runs on seven hits.
Overall, the numbers for Lynn in 2023 aren’t pretty. The right-hander is pitching to a 4.67 expected ERA while surrendering a .250 expected batting average and a .451 expected slugging percentage this season.
Now, the Twins are a team that generally hits for more power than average, but things have been going a bit better for them overall of late. Minnesota ranks 14th in batting average, eighth in OPS and fifth in wRC+ since the start of July.
I’m betting they do enough damage to tag Lynn for three or more runs once again.
Lance Lynn prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-120)
Christian rock
It appears that Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich has found some of his old magic and he’ll look to keep performing impressive feats when he digs into the batter’s box tonight against Mike Soroka and the Atlanta Braves.
The former MVP is having a solid year overall, hitting .287 with a .856 OPS this season, and it looks like Yelich has rediscovered that MVP form lately. He's hitting .349 with a 1.120 OPS over his last 15 games which includes 12 extra-base hits. And tonight’s matchup against Soroka is a good one.
The Braves right-hander is still working himself back after missing nearly three years with various injuries. This will just be his fifth start since returning to the Braves’ rotation and you can kind of tell. The right-hander is pitching to a 5.27 expected ERA while surrendering a .268 expected batting average and a .442 expected slugging percentage to opponents so far this season.
Yelich has also handled right-handers well all season long, getting to them for a .305 average and a .926 OPS. He has also eclipsed 1.5 total bases 12 times over this last 15-game stretch. At plus money, and this matchup, I like his chances of doing so once again.
Christian Yelich prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Astroworld
Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez is still the betting favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award, which is ever so slight. Valdez is sitting at +245 just ahead of Gerrit Cole at +250 and Kevin Gausman at +360.
Valdez’s second half got off to an interesting start. The southpaw surrendered five runs on seven hits in a crazy 13-12 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. But Valdez still pitched 6 1/3 innings and struck out a season-high 13 batters.
So, even when things aren’t going the best, Valdez is still pitching deep into games. In fact, he's one of baseball’s best innings-eaters, averaging 6.52 innings pitched per start this season.
He also has one of the longest leashes in the MLB (having an old-school guy like Dusty Baker as your manager definitely helps). Valdez averages 26.2 batters faced and 97.1 pitches per start and I’m betting he’s in for another lengthy outing tonight.
That’s in part because he’ll be on the mound against the lowly Oakland A’s. The A’s enter this matchup with a painfully bad 27-72 record and they do not enjoy going against southpaws. Oakland ranks 26th in batting average, 28th in OPS, and 24th in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season, and they're all too familiar with Valdez’s body of work.
The Astros’ lefty has taken the mound twice against the A’s this season. They were back-to-back starts at the end of May. The first was just a complete-game shutout where he allowed just four hits. The second was a ho-hum performance where he gave up one run on four hits over six innings.
Valdez’s outs recorded prop is sitting at 18.5 in this one, but I like him to get close to seven complete innings tonight, so there is some value to the Over; a number he has topped in 10 of his 18 starts this season.
Framber Valdez prop: Over 18.5 outs recorded (-125)
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