There is nothing like riding a hitter’s player props on a hot streak. But fading a player on during a slump can be just as profitable. And there aren’t many players in baseball in a bigger slump than New York Yankees’ slugger Giancarlo Stanton.
I took the Under on Stanton’s total hits prop yesterday and he did not disappoint. And he can’t be happy tonight as he’ll have to stare up on the mound at Seattle Mariners ace Luis Castillo. I’m predicting another big ol’ donut for Stanton in the hit column.
But it’s not all doom and gloom as I look at a pair of total bases props for a couple of sluggers I like to have a big night on the diamond. Check out my best MLB player props for Wednesday below.
MLB props for June 21
- Riley Over 1.5 TB
- Stanton Under 0.5 hits
- Seager Over 1.5 TB
Picks made on June 21 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: It's me, Austin
There are not many teams that know Aaron Nola better than the Atlanta Braves. And there aren’t many players more familiar with Nola than Braves third baseman Austin Riley. The two National League East foes face off tonight, and I think one of them has a nice edge in this matchup.
This season has not gone as planned for Nola. The Phillies ace is pitching to a 4.66 ERA and is in a slump right now. The right-hander has surrendered four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts, pitching to a 5.34 ERA.
While the underlying numbers for Nola aren’t terrible, he is having issues with walks and giving up the long ball. Over the last five starts, he has given up 11 walks and seven home runs. His opponent expected slugging percentage of .406 is about league average.
That means he’s probably not super thrilled to see Riley tonight. The Braves slugger is also in a bit of a slump, hitting .246 with a .657 OPS in the month of June, but he is still hitting the ball hard on a regular basis. He ranks in the 70th percentile or better in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, and has a .262 expected batting average for the season. So, a matchup with Nola might be just what he needs to see some better results.
Riley and Nola have faced off 51 times over the course of their careers. Riley has a massive 20 hits in 48 at-bats. That includes five doubles and five dingers. It’s good for a .338 expected batting average and a .726 expected slugging percentage.
Riley is also showing signs of breaking out, with a multi-hit game on Saturday, and he hit a dinger against the Phillies last night.
But it’s getting +160 on the Over 1.5 total bases which takes this play over the top and makes it a best bet.
Austin Riley prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+160)
Prop bet #2: Standing against Stanton
Just like we ride a hitter on a hot streak, we will continue to fade one in a slump as well. And not many are slumping these days like New York Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton.
We backed Stanton to go 0-fer in last night’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners and he didn’t let us down, going 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. And with the Mariners handing the ball to ace Luis Castillo for Game 2 of this series, we’re going back to that well.
The Yankees’ designated hitter has always been streaky, and 2023 is no different. But this cold streak is a doozy.
After last night’s performance, Stanton is now hitting below the Mendoza line with his average sitting at .196 with a .680 OPS, marks which would be the lowest of his career. The numbers don’t get better against right-handed pitchers, where the batting average drops to .183, and the OPS to .658. And if you can believe it, his current slump is even worse.
The former MVP (that feels like a long time ago, right?) has just three hits with 15 strikeouts in his last 43 plate appearances. That works out to a stunningly low .079 batting average and a .344 OPS. If you thought his matchup against George Kirby last night was bad, then tonight’s vs. Castillo is a nightmare.
The Mariners’ right-hander has been fantastic this season, pitching to a 3.47 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a .218 expected batting average. He’s also striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings.
Like Kirby, Castillo throws fastballs (a four-seamer and sinker) more than 65% of the time, meaning Stanton will see a steady diet of them. He has a .193 xBA vs. fastballs this season.
Castillo also pitches deep into games (nearly six innings per start), so the handoff to an excellent M’s bullpen that ranks first in xFIP and fourth in strikeouts per nine innings should be a smooth one.
The slump continues for Stanton. But not for us.
Giancarlo Stanton prop: Under 0.5 hits (+105)
Prop bet #3: Seeing value on Seager
The Texas Rangers just can’t stop hitting. They lead the MLB in scoring and batting average, are second in wRC+, third in OPS, and seventh in home runs. And one of the big catalysts for all that run production is Corey Seager.
The star shortstop is having a standout season, hitting .367 with a 1.081 OPS. But if you can believe it, the 29-year-old Seager is even more locked in at the moment.
The three-time All-Star has hits in 10 of his last 11 games, good for a .478 OPS average with a 1.430 OPS. That includes a whopping 11 extra-base hits, and I’m betting he keeps swinging a hot stick when he digs into the batter’s box tonight vs. Michael Kopech and the Chicago White Sox.
Kopech has had an up-and-down season, even if his 3.92 ERA doesn’t overtly say that. While the earned runs are down and the strikeout numbers are there, Kopech is getting hit hard.
The right-hander’s expected ERA is more than a run higher at 5.07, and his opponent expected slugging percentage of .445 is in the Bottom 27% of the MLB. He also ranks in the second percentile when it comes to barrel rate. So, opponents are basically teeing him up, and some regression should be in his future.
Those aren’t exactly the numbers needed to slow down a guy as hot as Seager. Additionally, Seager is mashing righties, getting to them for a .378 average and a 1.161 OPS.
Seager has gone Over 1.5 total bases 11 times in 18 games played this month, and we are still getting plus-money on the Over tonight. That’s enough to sign me up.
Corey Seager prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
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