Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: 50 Fades of Gray

There’s no better way to kick off a warm May weekend than with some cold beers and some winning MLB player props. And with all 30 teams on the diamond today, there's no shortage of options.

Today is the much-anticipated debut of Eury Perez for the Miami Marlins, but I think a certain white-hot Reds hitter can take advantage of this matchup. Another young arm could be in for a tough night when the Cleveland Guardians host the Los Angeles Angels. And the sun hasn’t been shiny as brightly for Sonny Gray when he has been on the road this season.

I dig through the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player prop picks for Friday, May 12.

MLB props for May 12

• India Over 1.5 total bases (+160)
• Allen Under 16.5 outs (-110)
• Gray Under 6.5 strikeouts (-135)

Picks made on 5/12/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Indian cuisine

Somehow, a matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and the Miami Marlins is one of the most intriguing games on the board on Friday night.

That’s because the Marlins are calling up arguably baseball’s top prospect, Eury Perez, to start this game. Perez is a towering right-hander standing at 6-foot-8 with an electric fastball that misses a ton of bats. He also has a full arsenal of offspeed and breaking pitches. The 20-year-old has struck out 42 batters in 31 innings of work at Double-A Pensacola.

But that’s the thing: While Perez clearly has Big League stuff, this is still his first Big League start and he’s never played higher than Double-A. And while a matchup with the Reds seems like a softball matchup to start a Major League career, they have actually put on their hitting shoes of late. None more so than Jonathan India.

The Reds' second baseman is on a heater. India's in the middle of an eight-game hitting streak where he owns a .433 batting average and a 1.221 OPS, including six extra-base hits. India has also struck out just five times in 33 plate appearances over that period.

Perez is likely to stick to his bread-and-butter in his first start and that is his fastball. India is hitting .311 against fastballs this season.

On top of that, Perez is averaging just over five innings per start at Double-A. It’s unlikely that he goes beyond five in his first Big League start. That means handing the ball to a Marlins bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA and opponent batting average.

I’m backing India to stay hot and getting +160 on the Over 1.5 total bases looks like a great price. He’s gone Over that mark in six of his last seven games.

Jonathan India Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+160)

Guardians of the fallacy

It’s been a tough start to the season for the Cleveland Guardians. They sit at 17-20 with a -25 run differential. That’s good for third place in the American League Central. Obviously, some injuries to the starting rotation haven’t helped the Guardians' cause, and it has forced them to call up some young arms, including tonight’s starter, Logan Allen.

The 24-year-old Allen is making just his fourth career start when he takes the ball against the Los Angeles Angels tonight and the results have been mixed to this point for the young southpaw.

While Allen has given up just five earned runs over his first three MLB starts his advanced numbers say he’s been a bit lucky. Allen is pitching to a 5.65 expected ERA and is surrendering a .519 expected slugging percentage to opponents. And if there is a team that knows something about slugging it’s the Halos.

Los Angeles ranks fifth in baseball when it comes to home runs per nine innings and they have had plenty of success against lefties. The Angels rank fifth in batting average, eighth in OPS and seventh in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season. 

To me, that adds up to a short outing for Allen. His outs recorded prop sits at 16.5 for this matchup, and while he has gone Over that number in two of his three starts, those two starts came against the Twins and Marlins. Not exactly tough lineups at the moment. 

I’m betting the Angels take advantage of this matchup with the young lefty and chase him from this game before he gets Over this number.  

Logan Allen Prop: Under 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at DraftKings)

Sonny side stuck

Starting pitching has been a huge reason why the Minnesota Twins are sitting at the top of the American League Central standings, and Sonny Gray might be the best of the bunch.

The Twins’ right-hander is pitching to a 2.83 expected ERA, is limiting opponents to a .197 expected batting average, and has struck out 47 batters in 41 innings of work over seven starts this season. However, his splits on the road, particularly his strikeout numbers, haven’t been as favorable and tonight he’ll be taking the mound at the Friendly Confines, Wrigley Field, to take on the Chicago Cubs.

Gray’s strikeouts per nine innings drop from 11.9 at home to 8.4 on the road. He has 14 total strikeouts in 15 innings pitched away from home this season. It’s also important to note he hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his three road starts this season.

Now, he goes against a Cubbies lineup that has been tough to navigate for right-handed pitchers. Chicago ranks fourth in batting average and eighth in OPS and wRC+ when facing RHPs this season. On top of that, they have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate vs. righties.

At less than a strikeout an inning on the road, going against a patient Cubs lineup, even in a six-inning performance, I only have Gray at six strikeouts. The Under 6.5 Ks looks like a solid value tonight.

Sonny Gray Prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-135)

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