Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Greene, Olson Stay Hot at the Plate

Let’s kick off the new week of action with some winners in the MLB player prop market, and with 12 games on the MLB odds board, there is no shortage of options.

Today, I look at a pair of total bases props for a couple of lefty sluggers with juicy matchups tonight as Matt Olson and the Braves take on the Dodgers, while Riley Greene and the Tigers take on the Royals. And after an impressive start to his Big League career, things get a little tougher for Brandon Williamson in start No. 2 vs. the Cardinals.

I break it all down in my best MLB player prop picks for May 22 below.

MLB props for May 22

• Williamson Over 4.5 hits allowed (-145)
• Olson Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
• Greene Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

Picks made on 5/22/2023 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Prop bet #1: Growing pains

Cincinnati Reds prospect Brandon Williamson had a very successful Big League debut last week, but will he be able to make it two in a row when he takes the ball against the St. Louis Cardinals at the Great American Ball Park on Monday night?

Williamson is a towering 6-foot-6 left-hander with a full assortment of pitches and that was on display in his first MLB start against the Rockies last week. Williamson limited the Rockies to one run on two hits while striking out six over 5 2/3 innings of work in that game.

However, even though the Rockies are lauded as one of the best offensive teams in baseball while playing in the thin air at Coors Field, they've been just downright bad against left-handed pitchers this season. Like, really bad. The Rockies rank 20th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and dead last in wRC+ vs. southpaws.

So, Williamson goes against one of the worst teams at hitting lefties to one of the best in the Cardinals. St. Louis is starting to turn things around after a slow start this season, at least at the dish.

Thanks to the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Nolan Gorman, the Cardinals rank ninth in batting average and sixth in OPS and wRC+ when facing lefties this season. I like the Cards to pose a bit of a tougher front for Williamson in start No. 2 and am betting they get a fair number of knocks tonight in Cincinnati.

Brandon Williamson prop: Over 4.5 hits allowed (-145)

Prop bet #2: Backing Matt's bat

Two of the National League’s best teams do battle when the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers open a three-game series tonight in Atlanta. This is a matchup of two of the best lineups in baseball featuring a ton of big-name bats and arguably none are in a better groove than Braves first baseman Matt Olson. 

The former All-Star was in a bit of a slump the last few weeks but it’s fair to say that he's broken out of it. Olson is hitting .364 with a 1.258 OPS over his last six games, which includes six extra-base hits. Maybe more importantly, you can tell how locked in Olsen is because he's struck out only five times in his last 25 plate appearances.

Olson has also been a much more reliable hitter against right-handed pitchers. The lefty slugger is hitting .270 with a 1.039 OPS when facing righties this season.

Tonight, he’ll be facing a right-hander and have a big experience advantage when he digs in against Dodgers prospect Gavin Stone. The 24-year-old has a solid fastball and combined with a devastating bottom-falls-out changeup, he has racked up 41 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City.

However, that stuff didn’t translate immediately in Stone’s MLB debut and will be hoping his second start will go a little more smoothly. The right-hander managed just four innings, surrendering five runs (four earned) on eight hits and two walks while recording just one strikeout against the Phillies back on May 3.

The other problem for the Dodgers here is that five innings from the young Stone seem like the best-case scenario. That means extended innings for an L.A. bullpen that has not lived up to expectations this season. The Dodgers’ relievers rank 26th in ERA, 23rd in WHIP, and 24th in opponent average.

I’m betting Olson keeps swinging a hot stick in this matchup and cashes the Over 1.5 total bases, something he's done in five of his last six games.

Matt Olson prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Prop bet #3: Eye of the Tiger

The Detroit Tigers are in second place in the AL West. This is a statement of fact, but with a 20-24 record, it's also a scathing admission of the putrid state of the division. 

So, how have the Tigers climbed this high, or at least been better than whatever else is in the division? Well for starters, their young core bats have performed well in the month of May. 

Spencer Torkelson, Akil Baddoo, and Riley Greene have all been seeing the ball well lately with Greene being the most locked-in of the bunch. Greene is hitting .365 with a .967 OPS over 16 games in May and he’ll have a great opportunity to get a few more knocks tonight against a familiar foe: Brady Singer and the Kansas City Royals.

The Tigers are one of the few teams Singer actually has good numbers against but the right-hander is really struggling this season. Singer is pitching to a 6.79 expected ERA while giving up a .308 expected batting average, and a .543 expected slugging percentage to opponents, all of which rank in the Bottom 6% of MLB.

Plus, Singer will eventually hand the ball to a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA, 26th in WHIP, and 24th in opponent batting average.

Back to Singer specifically, it’s no coincidence that he’s had less success against the Tigers' young guns, including Greene. The Tigers’ lefty slugger is 3-for-7 in his career vs. Singer, with a .518 expected slugging percentage. He’s also done a solid job against right-handed pitchers all season, getting to them for a .297 batting average and a .802 OPS.

He has gone Over 1.5 total bases 10 times in 16 games played in May. At plus money, I’m happy to back him to do so once again.

Riley Greene prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

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