Today's MLBs schedule is jam-packed with 15 games on the board. That means the diamonds are full of value in the player prop markets.
Riding hot streaks can be profitable early in the season before we get a larger sample size of data, so that’s what we'll be doing by looking at Royals outfielder Andrew Benintendi when they visit the Cardinals. Then we hope the newest superstar Dodger, Freddie Freeman, can start a hot streak of his own against the Twins.
Here are our best free MLB player prop picks for Tuesday, April 12.
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MLB props for April 12
- Kikuchi Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
- Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
- Benintendi Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Picks made on 4/12/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Kikuchi's fills Blue Jays debut with Ks
Today, we’re betting on some Pete Walker magic as Yusei Kikuchi takes the ball for the first time as a Toronto Blue Jay when he draws tonight's start against the New York Yankees in Game 2 of their four-game series in the Bronx.
Walker, the Blue Jays pitching coach, has been largely credited with helping several starting pitchers revamp their careers. Particularly lefties. Last season, Robbie Ray bounced back from some rough seasons in Arizona to capture the American League Cy Young Award in 2021, while Steven Matz earned a lucrative contract with the Cardinals.
So, Blue Jays fans are hoping for similar results with Kikuchi. While the lefty was an All-Star last season, his splits between the first and second half were jarring and his overall numbers (4.97 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) have been mediocre since coming over from Japan.
But the southpaw has a fastball that averaged 95.1 miles per hour last season with opponents hitting just .209 off it. If Walker can help him work out the issues with his cutter, Kikuchi could see some positive results, starting tonight against the Yanks.
Kikuchi already struck out 9.3 batters per nine innings last season and now faces a Yankees lineup that is striking out 9.5 times per game so far in 2022. That ranks 24th in the MLB. Kikuchi also had five or more strikeouts in both starts he made against the Yankees last season and if he gets through five innings against an offense that is hitting .214 as a team, he'll eclipse this number.
Pick: Yusei Kikuchi Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
Running Free(man)
Freddie Freeman has gotten off to a bit of a slow start in Dodger Blue, but that just might be giving up some early season value on his total bases prop when he and the Dodgers open a mini two-game set in Minnesota against the Twins.
Freeman is just 2-for-11 (.167) with no extra-base hits to start his Dodgers career, but don’t expect that to last long. Remember, this is a former MVP, who has a .305 batting average dating back to 2016, and has led the league in doubles twice over that stretch. Freeman can flat-out hit.
And now he gets a matchup that might help him get back to his baseball whacking ways, as the Twins hand the ball to Chris Archer.
Archer has not pitched well since being traded to the Pirates in what will go down as one of the most lopsided deals in recent MLB history.
The right-hander has made just five starts since 2019 and hasn’t had a really strong season since 2017. Last year, in five starts with the Rays, the right-hander recorded a 4.66 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, relying mainly on just two pitches, his fastball, and slider.
In those games, hitters had an expected batting average of .327 against Archer’s fastball and .270 against his slider.
With Freeman coming off a year in which he hit .317 versus right-handers with a .949 OPS, we like him to go Over his total bases prop tonight.
Pick: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
B-B-Benny and the Jets
And we close out our player prop picks for today by riding another hot streak. Andrew Benintendi will bring his scorching bat to St. Louis as he and the Kansas City Royals visit the Cardinals for a quick two-game series.
One of my favorite things to do early on in a baseball season is to ride hot streaks before we get the large-scale data baseball bettors crave. And that’s exactly what we’re doing with Benintendi.
The Royals’ outfielder is an impressive 7-for-13 with a home run to start the season. He also has three walks to just one strikeout, providing a good indication that he's seeing the ball well early. Tonight, he gets an interesting matchup against Cardinals right-hander Dakota Hudson.
Hudson missed most of last season with an injury and while his career ERA is an impressive 3.14, his FIP of 4.66 says he’s been a little bit lucky. Left-handed hitters also have a .750 OPS against him over the course of his career.
Hudson also has a career strikeout rate of 18.1%, relying more on pitching to contact, which could further play into the hot-hitting Benintendi's hands. Benny is a pure contact hitter, striking out in only 18% of plate appearances in 2021 and he's only fanned once so far in 16 PAs this season.
Bet on Benintendi to continue to swing a hot stick in this one and go Over his total bases prop in the process.
Pick: Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $72.68 on a $10 bet?
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