The MLB season is here and so are all the glorious prop markets that come with it. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props.
Today, we’re fading the Cincinnati lineup again, looking for a Texas bat to stay hot, and banking on a single base from a middle-of-the-order hitter in Toronto.
MLB props for April 22
- Matz Over 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
- Lowe Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
- Chapman Over 0.5 total bases (-105)
Picks made on 4/22/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Mowing down Reds with Matz
Steven Matz might own a 7.27 ERA through two starts, but the St. Louis lefty will get a fine matchup today versus the Cincinnati Reds who are striking out more than anyone in baseball.
The Reds have come out of the gates with a 2-11 record, striking out at 28.4%, hitting .171 as a team (29th in the league), and walking at the lowest rate in the National League at 7.3%.
The offense has scored just seven runs over its last six games and hasn’t plated more than two runs in any of them. Jonathan India, Tyler Naquin, and Mike Moustakas are all out while Joey Votto is hitting .131. This is the perfect lineup to bet against right now.
The Reds are coming off a series versus the Padres where all three San Diego starters topped their strikeout totals — MacKenzie Gore had seven strikeouts over five innings, Joe Musgrove had seven punchouts over 6 1-3 innings, while Sean Manaea struck out six over six.
Matz had a rough outing in his opener, looked stronger in his second start, and is primed to rack up some Ks today on the road. The lefty won’t be in the best pitching environment at Great American Ballpark, but the Reds are struggling to put the ball in play so the ballpark effects should be mitigated.
Matz struck out six in his last outing (5 2-3 innings) and still managed to rack up five punchouts in his opener where he lasted just three innings and gave up nine hits and seven runs. He finished with a Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate of 35% in the last outing and didn’t walk a batter, so the control and stuff are all where it should be for the southpaw.
The Reds are hitting even worse against lefties this season (Bottom 5 in wOBA and BB/K) which has us liking this matchup even more. Matz should be good for a bigger pitch count today as well, and his 28.2% K% should work well today versus this swing-and-miss lineup.
Pick: Steven Matz Over 5.5 strikeouts (-105 at Caesars)
Getting high on Lowe
No Texas Ranger has a higher price on total bases than Nathaniel Lowe at +140 price. Perhaps the books haven’t been paying attention to the 26-year-old, who is slashing .396/.431/.458, riding a seven-game hitting streak, and has a multi-hit in six of his 12 games.
Lowe is hitting in the middle of the Texas batting order and is coming off a 3-for-5 night versus the Mariners last night. Today, he’ll turn his high 92.2% Z-contact% towards Oakland starter Adam Oller and his 13.50 ERA.
Oller has given up 17 total bases over his 4 2-3 innings of work (two starts). In those two starts, the rookie right-hander has given up four doubles and a pair of long balls. If he gets the quick hook, Lowe and the Rangers will face an Oakland bullpen that sits in the bottom half of the league in xFIP, ERA, and in the Bottom 6 in WHIP and AVG.
The lightly-attended RingCentral Coliseum is a home-run suppressing ballpark, but Lowe isn’t leaving the yard much right now and is instead creating a ton of contact and hitting singles and doubles. He has five hits over his last two games and is seeing the ball well.
The Rangers could be putting up a few crooked numbers today and no batter in that lineup is hotter than Lowe who is paying handsomely to collect two bases.
Pick: Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)
Piece of the Chapman
Toronto’s Matt Chapman is riding a five-game hitting streak, went 3-for-4 yesterday, is second on the team in wOBA (min. 30 at-bats), and looks comfortable in the middle of the Jays’ order.
His 27.7% O-swing% (outside zone swing percentage) is among the lowest on the team and his 75.5% contact percentage is better than every batter in the top five of the order. He isn’t missing much with his swings (10.6% swing-strike percentage) and is putting the ball into play at a high rate.
He has a tough matchup tonight versus Justin Verlander, but with an Over 0.5 total base prop at -105, the books aren’t giving him much credit.
Santiago Espinal (Over 0.5 total bases -135), Alejandro Kirk (Over 0.5 total bases -161), and Raimel Tapia (Over 0.5 total bases -149) are all priced worse than the Jays’ No. 5 hitter, and we feel the probability of Chapman getting a hit is better than all three of those players who could be hitting lower in the order.
Verlander has allowed just eight hits over his first 13 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery, but the Jays will be his biggest test of the season.
The two-time AL Cy Young winner has been pumping the fastball since coming back with an average velocity of 94 mph, but Chapman has handled the fastball well this season and is hitting .320 and slugging .560 versus the ol’ No. 1.
The matchup is tough, but Chapman should not be paying -105 for a hit, while the majority of the hitters behind him in the lineup have longer odds to collect a hit.
Pick: Matt Chapman Over 0.5 total bases (-105 at Caesars)
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