We've got a packed day of baseball this Saturday, with 15 games on the MLB betting board. That gives us thousands of MLB player prop bets to consider, so we've dug through all the numbers to find you some of the best bets of the day.
Today we like a trio of stars as we put our money on Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah, Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts, and Astros red-hot slugger Alex Bregman. Here are our best free MLB player prop bets for August 27.
MLB props for August 27
Picks made on 8/27/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Stealing the Sho
The first game on the MLB board today is a pitcher's duel between Angels MVP candidate Shohei Ohtani and Blue Jays All-Star Alek Manoah.
Manoah put on a show at the All-Star game, striking out the side in the second inning while mic'd up. The 24-year-old is having a breakout season going 12-6 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 139 punchouts through 148 2-3 innings.
Although, on paper, the Angels should be one of the better hitting teams in the majors, they lag near the bottom of the majors in OPS and are dead-last in strikeout rate (26.2%).
Manoah's strikeouts total for today is set at 6.5, a number that he has cleared in each of his last two games (15 total punchouts in 11 2-3 innings versus the Yankees and Orioles). He also went well over that number in his previous start against the Angels in May, when he fanned nine batters in six innings.
Alek Manoah Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+100 at bet365)
X-factor
The second game on the schedule this afternoon is an AL East clash at Fenway between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes numbers appear almost too good to be true, and that seems to be the case with the Over 0.5 on Bogaerts' singles total, which is paying out at close to a pick'em price.
Sure, Bogaerts has some pop which has resulted in 32 doubles this season, but he doesn't go deep often and has slashed 90 singles in 119 games this year.
The Rays will send southpaw Jeffrey Springs to the mound, and while he has an outstanding 2.46 ERA, his expected ERA is a more modest 3.45, and his expected batting average of .238 is middle of the pack.
Bogaerts has a terrific .371 batting average against lefties, and he also bats .309 at home. Back the four-time Silver Slugger winner to pick up a single today.
Xander Bogaerts Prop: Over 0.5 singles (-115 at DraftKings)
Dean creamed
Houston third baseman Alex Bregman is the hottest hitter in baseball. Over the last 15 days, he is slashing .377/.433/.811 with five homers and an absurd eight doubles.
Today, Bregman and the Astros are hosting the surging Orioles and starting pitcher Dean Kremer. Kremer has made vast improvements from a horrific rookie campaign last year, reducing his ERA from 7.55 to 3.45, but the underlying analytics show that there's still lots to work on.
Kremer is in the bottom 18th percentile of pitchers in both expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate, and his expected ERA sits at 4.51.
Bregman has been mashing against right-handers like Kremer, boasting a .533 slugging percentage against them. The 2019 Silver Slugger winner also has extreme home/away splits where he has a .385 slugging percentage on the road and a .585 slugging percentage at Minute Maid Park.
With Bregman picking up at least two total bases in nine of his last 13 games, take the Over 1.5 on his total bases tonight.
Alex Bregman Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+128 at Sugar House)
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