It’s a great day for action on the diamond with 16 games on tap for baseball bettors to dive into. That also means a cornucopia of options in the MLB player prop market.
Today, we look at a total bases prop for one of the hottest hitters in baseball who is playing in tonight’s Red Sox-Rays game, the Twins will look to continue the hit parade when they dig in against the Brewers' Jason Alexander, and Noah Syndergaard is starting, so you know what that means. Stolen bases props!
Here are our best MLB prop bets for Tuesday, July 12.
MLB props for July 12
Picks made on 7/12/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Handy Yandy
Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Yandy Diaz continued his scorching hot stretch last night by whacking three hits in last night’s 10-5 win over the Boston Red Sox. Diaz will look to keep tearing the cover off the ball when these AL East rivals continue their series at the Trop tonight.
Diaz has been an incredibly difficult hitter to get out. He is hitting exactly .500 over his last 15 games with a 1.273 OPS to boot. The only game where he doesn’t have a hit over that stretch is when he entered a game over the weekend as a pinch hitter against the Reds. He also has 10 multi-hit games over those 14 starts.
Tonight, he’ll dig in against Red Sox starter Chris Sale, who will be making his first start of the season. The lefty and seven-time All-Star has been working his way back from a stress fracture in his rib cage which he suffered in Spring Training.
While Sale is returning to the Big Leagues, he will shake off some rust. He surrendered five walks in 3 2-3 innings in his fourth rehab outing with Triple-A Worcester on Wednesday. This matchup against Diaz will be a tough one.
Diaz has had Sale’s number over the course of their careers. Diaz is 6-12 (.500) with three extra-base hits and a walk when facing off against Sale. With Diaz going Over 1.5 total bases 12 times over his last 14 starts it seems like a bargain to get plus money like this for him to do it once again.
Yandy Diaz Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at DraftKings)
Alexander's not so great
The Milwaukee Brewers have some great starting pitchers, Jason Alexander just isn’t one of them. And that’s who’ll take the ball for the Brew Crew tonight when they take on the Minnesota Twins.
The rookie right-hander has had a tough transition to the Big Leagues. Through his first eight career appearances (six starts) he has been tagged for a 5.79 expected ERA and is surrendering a .313 expected batting average to opponents. It doesn’t help that Alexander doesn’t strike out anyone, ranking in the Bottom 1% of MLB in strikeout rate.
Enter the Minnesota Twins.
Quietly, the Twins are raking in the month of July. They rank 10th in batting average, fourth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ this month. On top of that, they have handled right-handers well all season long, ranking fifth in batting average and third in OPS against them.
Now, 6.5 is a large number for a hits allowed prop, but it’s a number Alexander has gone Over in five of his six starts, and the one he didn’t he allowed six. So, at plus money like this, against arguably the toughest lineup he has faced to date, it’s worth a wager.
Jason Alexander Prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (+122 at FanDuel)
Ma! The Meatloaf!
We want it now!
The meatloaf being, of course, fading Los Angeles Angels starter Noah Syndergaard in the stolen bases market. No one in the Big Leagues allows opposing teams to run wild like Syndergaard and that probably won’t change when he takes the ball tonight against the Houston Astros.
Syndergaard has allowed 21 stolen bases this season. That’s seven more than the next closest pitcher and has had at least one bag swiped on him in 11 of his 13 starts this season. And while Thor has given up a ton of stolen bases, it has been to some unlikely candidates. This includes allowing Miami Marlins, um, speedster, Jesus Aguilar to swipe one in his last start.
So, which Astros player wants that meatloaf? None other than Chas McCormick.
The Astros outfielder hasn’t swiped a ton of bags this season. Well, just one in fact and has been caught stealing twice, but at +1,000 he’s a solid value to take advantage of this matchup with Syndergaard.
While McCormick doesn’t hit for a great average (.229), Billy Beane would love him because he... gets on base. McCormick has a great eye at the plate and draws a lot of walks. As a result, he owns a solid .315 on-base percentage.
And once he does get on base, he’s got above-average speed to take him from base-to-base ranking in the 84th percentile in MLB in sprint speed. The meatloaf. We want it.
Chas McCormick Prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+1,000 at DraftKings)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $527.24 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
