It’s the first full week of action back on the diamond following the MLB All-Star game, so let’s start the second half in style by hitting some winners in the player prop market.
Noah Syndergaard makes his first start since the break and you know what that means – stolen base props – but which Royals player is the one to back tonight? Plus, there is some value to be found in a pair of pitching props as the Pirates' JT Brubaker and the Mariners' Chris Flexen take the mound.
Check out our best MLB player prop bets for Monday, July 25.
MLB props for July 25
Picks made on 7/25/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Bru-bakin up some Ks
JT Brubaker makes his first post-All-Star break start for the Pittsburgh Pirates when he toes the rubber tonight against the Chicago Cubs. Brubaker has been sneaky profitable when it comes to his strikeout prop this season and he presents another opportunity for us tonight against the Cubbies.
Brubaker has been quietly good for the Buccos this season, pitching to an expected ERA of 3.85 and limiting opponents to a .230 expected batting average. The right-hander has also had some solid strikeouts numbers as well.
Brubaker is striking out more than a batter per inning this season and has struck out six or more in his last four starts. Brubaker will have a chance to keep that up against Chicago. The Cubs rank 21st in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching, while their 8.88 strikeouts per game are 27th.
The Cubs have also had some issues when facing the Bucs starter. Brubaker has racked up five and 10 strikeouts in his last two starts against Chicago and has pitched at least into the sixth inning in both of those starts.
If he can go that deep into the game tonight, he’ll have a great chance to notch his fifth straight game with six or more Ks.
JT Brubaker Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Lopez snags a bag
Noah Syndergaard takes the ball for the Los Angeles Angels for the first time since the All-Star break and you know what that means – stolen bases props.
For those of you just tuning in to our weekly PSA about fading Thor with stolen base props, here’s the rundown. Syndergaard gives up stolen bases. Like, a lot of them. Twenty-three of them to be precise. That’s the most in baseball and seven more than the next closest pitcher. He has also allowed at least one stolen base in 12 of his 14 starts.
Tonight, he’ll try to keep the Kansas City Royals from running wild, which will be easier said than done. Syndergaard faced the Royals back on June 20, and they swiped three bags off him in an eventual 6-4 K.C. victory.
The guilty parties in that game were Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier, and Andrew Benintendi (Dozier also got caught stealing on a second attempt as well). With Bobby Witt Jr. nursing a sore hammy, Merrifield is the favorite to swipe a bag tonight at +220. The Royals' leadoff hitter has stolen 14 bases on the season and been caught stealing three times.
That said, there is more value with Lopez at +550. Not only did he swipe a bag off Syndergaard in that one, but he also has the better on-base percentage of the two. Lopez also has better career numbers against Syndergaard than Merrifield does.
Dozier might be worth a sprinkle at +1,250, but Lopez is our guy tonight.
Nicky Lopez Prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+550)
Rangers chase Flexen
Seattle Mariners starter Chris Flexen has allowed just two earned runs in the month of July, so is he turning things around heading into tonight's matchup with the Texas Rangers? Well, not so fast.
For starters, he only started three games this month, and one was against the Washington Nationals. And while he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start in each of his last 10 starts, there are still some numbers that don’t do him a ton of favors.
Despite that run, Flexen has an expected ERA of 5.02 and is allowing opponents to hit for a .267 expected batting average.
Yes, Flexen has been solid lately, but he mostly uses a fastball and cutter, both of which get hit fairly hard, and is now going up against a Texas team that loves to jump on fastballs.
The Rangers, led by red-hot middle infielders Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, now rank a respectable 12th in OPS and 13th in wRC+ in the month of July. They’ve continued that post-All-Star break putting up 24 runs on 41 hits in their first four games back.
Now, Flexen faced the Rangers in his last start before the break and only gave up four hits, but that start was on short rest and lasted just 3 2-3 innings. And prior to that, he had surrendered six or more hits nine times in his previous 12 starts.
At plus money, it’s worth backing the Rangers to tally up the hits against Flexen tonight.
Chris Flexen Prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (+105)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $256.50 on a $10 bet?
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