The MLB season is in full swing and with it all the betting markets that we’ve come to love/hate. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day, and do all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
Today, we’re expecting long balls in Buffalo, jumping on the Milwaukee bandwagon and getting in the time machine for some vintage lefty action.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Saturday, July 3, 2021.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Tampa Bay/Toronto — Alternative total — Over 12 (+185)
The Blue Jays and Rays have played some high-scoring games, especially with Toronto as the home team. In the five games at TD Ballpark and Sahlen Field, the average combined run total is 12.8, with at least 12 runs being scored in all but one of those meetings. The Jays have scored at least nine runs in half of their last eight games in Buffalo and are 9-7 O/U at Sahlen Field this year.
The Jays have baseball’s best OPS over the last week (.934), are creating 50 percent more runs than the average team (152 wRC+) and have arguably the best lineup in baseball. The top of the order went 7 for 16 yesterday with three home runs and seven runs scored in an 11-1 route of the Rays. Today, the loaded lineup will face young left-hander Shane McClanahan.
The 24-year-old southpaw has just 50 innings of MLB experience under his belt. He also didn’t pitch last year and saw as high as Double-A in 2019. He is a first-round talent coming off a pair of quality starts, but Saturday would be a good day to fade the starter who has allowed five home runs over his last 23 innings of work.
Toronto hits lefties at a .263 clip, which is the fifth-best mark in baseball. They also put the ball in the air versus LHP, as their 40.7 percent groundball rate is the fourth-lowest in the league.
Ross Stripling has been dealing of late, but a hiccup is to be expected sooner rather than later and with Tampa coming off a 10-run loss yesterday, we wouldn’t mind it happening today. The Rays team total sits at 4.5 but is heavy on the vig at -130. Even if they can’t get to Stripling, the Toronto bullpen is still a garbage fire.
We like both teams to put up some runs Saturday afternoon in Buffalo with a medium-to-big wind (10 mph) blowing straight out to left.
Brewers team total Over 4.5 (-135)
No team has scored more runs (65) or hit more home runs (16) over the last seven days than the Milwaukee Brewers, who are hitting .281 and sporting a .911 OPS over that stretch. It’s one of the reasons Milwaukee is riding a 10-game winning streak heading into Saturday’s matchup versus the Pittsburgh Pirates and starter Cody Ponce.
Ponce’s last outing was a mop-up long-relief role four days ago, where he threw three innings and gave up three runs on six hits. His only start this year was back in late May where he allowed four runs across five innings. He only threw 44 pitches Tuesday, so a bigger workload is expected but with a 5.70 ERA in Triple-A, we’re betting the quality isn’t there.
Over their last eight games, the Brewers have hit the five-run mark seven times and have scored exactly seven runs in each of their previous three matches. They will have a great opportunity to keep those numbers up against the last-place Pirates and Ponce.
Clayton Kershaw Over 7.5 strikeouts (+110)
Clayton Kershaw is turning back the clock of late, as his 47 Ks over the last 30 days is the most of any probable starter on the Saturday slate. The lefty is coming off a masterful performance where he whiffed 13 Cubs batters over eight innings of one-run ball on Sunday. He finished the game with a 45 percent CWS (called strikes and whiffs), which is almost unheard of.
Kershaw’s pitched at least six innings in nine straight starts, with his last four starts all being QS. He has struck out at least nine batters in all but one of his last five turns and is paying plus money on his Over 7.5 punchouts Saturday.
Kershaw is 5-0 O/U on his K prop over his last five starts and gets one of the weakest lineups in baseball Saturday night in the Washington Nationals. The Nats aren’t big swing-and-missers but do struggle more against left-handers with a 23.3 K percentage. They have been striking out with a higher frequency of late (23.8 percent since June 1).
Over his 18 career games against the Nationals, the former Cy Young winner owns a solid 10.4 K/9 which is higher than his career average. In his 38 1-3 innings at Nationals Park, Kershaw has punched out 53 batters for a blistering 12.4 K/9 which is the lefty’s highest mark out of any visiting NL park.
MLB betting card for July 3
- Tampa Bay/Toronto — Alternative total — Over 12 (+185)
- Milwaukee Brewers team total Over 4.5 (-135)
- Clayton Kershaw Over 7.5 strikeouts (+110)
Picks made on 7/3/2021 at 7:30 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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