With the NBA and NHL playoffs winding down, the MLB is starting to become the main focus of sports bettors. In fact, it’s the only league of the three with games on tonight. But don’t worry, with 13 games on the schedule there are plenty of baseball betting options in the prop bet market.
Tonight, we highlight the ageless wonder Miguel Cabrera, who is working that sweet swing of his while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will try to extend his hit streak, and the Rangers will try to be the latest team to pick on Noah Syndergaard on the base paths.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Monday, May 16, as we bank on some of baseball’s best to do their thing.
MLB props for May 16
Picks made on 5/16/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Miggy gets jiggy with it
Two wily veterans face off when Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers visit Corey Kluber and the Tampa Bay Rays.
Cabrera, like most of the Tigers hitters not named Javier Baez and Austin Meadows, was in a bit of a slump to start the year. In fact, there was a 14-game stretch where Cabrera was hitting just .189 with a .510 OPS and 19 strikeouts. But even at this point in his career, you knew Miggy was too good of a hitter to not snap out of it.
He now has that pretty swing in one of its patented grooves. The future Hall of Famer is currently on a six-game hitting streak where he is hitting .500 with a 1.364 OPS, which includes him whacking two home runs and two doubles.
Tonight, he faces off against long-time foe Corey Kluber. The Rays’ right-hander has faced Cabrera more than anyone else in his professional career thanks to his many years pitching in the American League Central with Cleveland. But even in those dominant days, Cabrera won his fair share of the battles.
Miggy is 25-for-69 (.362) in his career when facing Kluber with four doubles and six dingers. And well, Kluber obviously isn’t the same pitcher he used to be.
He has pitched to an expected ERA of 5.54 over his first six starts with the Rays while giving up a .317 expected batting average to opponents. That’s not a recipe for success when facing Cabrera, who when he is in the zone, is still one of the best hitters on the planet.
With him going Over 1.5 total bases four times during this six-game stretch and having a comfortable matchup, getting +150 on the Over tonight is a solid value.
Pick: Miguel Cabrera Over 1.5 total bases (+150)
Daddy Vladdy
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a bad place. They return home after a nine-game road trip that saw them go just 2-7, dropping them to 18-17 on the season and into third place in the American League East.
One of the few bright spots (unsurprisingly) has been Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. The Jays' first baseman is currently riding a 12-game hitting streak, and he’ll look to kickstart Toronto’s offense when it opens a series with the Seattle Mariners.
Although Vladdy is on an impressive hit streak, it doesn’t feel like he is really hot at the dish. Partially because of the Jays’ struggles overall, but also because, somewhat unusually, he only has one multi-hit game over that stretch and is hitting a mediocre .289 with a .773 OPS. Solid, but not really what you expect to see when you hear he’s on a hitting streak as long as this one is.
Luckily, tonight’s matchup against Mariners’ starter Chris Flexen could be an opportunity the Jays need to get their bats going, with Guerrero leading the way.
Flexen’s numbers are OK through his first six starts this season, pitching to a 4.24 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, but his advanced numbers aren’t as pretty, and that played out in his last start where he allowed six runs on nine hits to the Philadelphia Phillies. His expected ERA now sits at 5.23 while giving up a .292 expected batting average and a .528 expected slugging percentage.
While Vladdy only has six career plate appearances against Flexen, the right hander has only gotten him out once with Guerrero going 3-for-4 with a double and two walks.
As previously mentioned, Vladdy only has one multi-hit game over this 12-game stretch. But all things considered, combined with the fact he’s been bumped up to the No. 2 hole in the batting order, and this value, backing him to get more than one knock tonight looks like a solid bet.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits (+205 at bet365)
Solak the swiper
Noah Syndergaard is pitching well in his first season with the Los Angeles Angels. He has pitched to a 2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over his first five starts, but Thor has had some issues with the lightning on the basepaths this season.
Opponents have stolen a league-high 10 bases against him when he’s on the mound this season. This has always been something that has been a problem for him, dating back to his time with the Mets. That is because of a slow and deliberate delivery to the plate, which has carried over to this season.
Tonight, it will be the Texas Rangers who will look to take advantage of Syndergaard's turtle-like delivery to the dish. But the question is, which Rangers' player is the best to back to nab that stolen bag?
For my money, the best stolen base candidate is utility man Nick Solak. Outside of Eli White (give us a stolen bases prop for him, you cowards!), Solak has the highest on-base percentage of any Ranger with multiple stolen bases this season.
He is 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts and ranks in the 88th percentile in sprint speed. Plus, he has been on base at least once in six of his last seven games. Take a swing at Solak swiping a bag tonight.
Pick: Nick Solak Over 0.5 stolen bases (+650 at PointsBet)
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