Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Going Big-Game Fishing With a Pair of Marlins

We've got a relatively short 10-game slate as teams travel to weekend destinations. But that doesn't mean you can't find value on the player props market.

We're pinpointing a pair of Marlins in a battle against the Padres and last year's AL Cy Young winner to go Under his strikeout total. 

Here are our three free favorite MLB player prop picks for May 5.

MLB props for May 5

• Chisholm Over 1.5 TBs (+145)
• Luzardo Over 5.5 Ks (+116)
• Ray Under 6.5 Ks (-108)

Picks made on 5/5/2022 at 12:40 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

Jazz stays smooth

Keep doubting Miami Marlins' second baseman Jazz Chisholm at your own risk. The 24-year-old has consistently been money in the total bases market and is still available consistently at plus money almost every game. In fact, the only time he hasn't eclipsed 1.5 total bases over his last six games was when he was used as a pinch-hitter against Seattle (and he still got a hit).

One of the keys when targeting total bases props is latching onto a player who hits near the top of his team's order with regularity, and this description fits Chisholm to a T. Yes, he was slotted in at sixth in the batting order yesterday, but that was due to the Marlins stacking the top of the lineup with right-handed bats against Diamondbacks southpaw Madison Bumgarner. Tonight's opponent, the San Diego Padres, are trotting out righty Nick Martinez to toe the rubber.

Chisholm has been the Marlins' leadoff hitter in nine of his last 11 games with the only outliers being against Bumgarner (who was tossed early, anyway) and the pinch-hit appearance. In that span, Chisholm is batting .349 with three doubles, a triple, two home runs, and four multi-hit games. He can clear this prop in a multitude of ways.

Martinez has allowed 21 hits in his 19 2-3 innings to start the season, including a whopping five home runs. 

Jazz makes a lot of solid contact and hasn't struck out in four games. At significant plus money, there is too much value to ignore on a prop that Chisholm has consistently cleared. 

Pick: Jazz Chisholm Over 1.5 total bases (+145 at DraftKings)

The Jesus rolls

Sticking with the Marlins for now, Jesus Luzardo has found another gear this year after he was dealt to Miami from Oakland last summer. He's averaging 97.3 mph on his fastball and counters that with a wipeout slider that might be one of the toughest pitches to hit in all of baseball, especially for left-handers.

He's also incredibly deceptive. No pitcher with at least 20 innings pitched in 2022 has a lower swing percentage on pitches inside the strike zone than Luzardo's 58.3%. He also ranks just outside the Top 10 in swinging strike percentage at 14%, narrowly behind Gerrit Cole of the Yankees.

All this has helped translate into a 34.1% strikeout rate (eighth in MLB) and 12.39 K/9 over four starts.

The total is set at 5.5 and FanGraphs projects him to clear six in today's outing, making him a perfect pairing with Chisholm against San Diego. 

Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)

Not exactly a Ray of sunshine

Robbie Ray has not been the strikeout machine of years past to start his tenure with the Seattle Mariners. Yes, he's coming off his strongest strikeouts performance of the season, striking out eight Marlins over five innings, but no team goes down swinging against left-handers as frequently as Miami, who have a collective 29.1% K rate against southpaws.

Comparatively, Ray's opponent tonight is Tampa Bay. The Rays' offense has struck out in just 20.7% of its plate appearances against lefties while posting MLB's sixth-best on-base percentage in those matchups. Tampa will put a ton of traffic on the basepaths and could force an early exit for the so-far underwhelming ace.

And while Ray did see an uptick in his punchouts during his last start, he also issued four walks. When he loses command of the strike zone, his ability to go deep into games gets increasingly unlikely and therefore limits his strikeout opportunities. His average fastball velocity is also still over a full mph slower than it was in 2021. For all that, I'm hitting the Under on him reaching 6.5 strikeouts tonight.

Pick: Robbie Ray Under 6.5 strikeouts (-108)

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