Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Eloy Jimenez's Bat Stays Scorching vs Rockies

It’s an absolutely jam-packed day on the diamond with a whopping 17 games on the MLB schedule thanks to a couple of doubleheaders. That means there will be no shortage of options to be found in the player prop market.

Today, we hope not to falter by taking advantage of the Marlins and their bottom-feeding offense. There is another hitter in the American League not named Mike Trout or Bo Bichette who is also red hot and brings us some value with his total bases prop. And will the Dodgers continue to be a thorn in the side of Diamondbacks starter Merril Kelly?

Find out in our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, September 13.

MLB props for September 13

• Falter Over 15.5 outs (-105)
• Jimenez Over 1.5 TB (+105)
• Kelly Over 5.5 hits allowed (-120)

Picks made on 9/13/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Bailey won't Falter

If you haven’t been paying attention to the Miami Marlins in the second half of the season, well, that’s probably a good thing. The Fish are living up to their “Bottom Feeders” moniker when it comes to scoring runs since the All-Star break and we’re going to take advantage of that with a Bailey Falter prop when the Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

The Marlins have plated an MLB-worst 135 runs in 50 second-half games. That is 23 worse than the next closest team (the Pittsburgh Pirates) and equates to a minuscule 2.7 runs per game. Not surprisingly, Miami ranks dead last in batting average (.214), OPS (.608), and wRC+ (74) over that span.

Tonight, they’ll dig in against Falter, who has found a rhythm since returning to the Phillies rotation in late August. The left-hander has a 2.66 ERA while limiting opponents to a .216 batting average over his last four starts.

The southpaw has also given the Phillies some length, pitching into at least the sixth inning over this four-game stretch, and in five straight starts overall. That includes going 5 1-3 against this same Marlins team in his last start back on Sept. 7. A Marlins team that is even worse against left-handed hurlers, ranking dead last in batting average, OPS, and strikeout rate.

This is a matchup that will allow Falter to pitch deep into another ball game and go Over 15.5 outs recorded in his six straight starts.

Bailey Falter Prop: Over 15.5 outs recorded (-105)

Eloy plays it Kuhl

Mike Trout and Bo Bichette aren’t the only players tearing the cover off the ball right now. Chicago White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez is also on one hell of a heater and will look to stay hot when the Pale Hose host the Colorado Rockies.

Injuries cost Jimenez most of the first half of the season and you could see he still needed to knock the rust off to find his rhythm when he first returned. But he has taken a .203 batting average heading into the All-Star break and exploded that all the way up to .317 heading into tonight’s game. 

But Jimenez’s last six games have been truly otherworldly. The White Sox slugger has 13 hits in his last 25 at-bats, that’s good for a .520 average. He also has a 1.479 OPS to go along with that, including five extra-base hits.

Now, he gets to face off against Rockies righty Chad Kuhl. And it has mostly been a season to forget for the Rockies starter. Kuhl has pitched to an expected ERA of 5.28 and is surrendering a .467 expected slugging percentage to opposing hitters. Both those marks rank in the Bottom 8% of MLB.

Mix in a Rockies bullpen that ranks dead last in ERA and Jimenez will get plenty of opportunities to continue his hot streak and go Over 1.5 total bases for the seventh straight game. I'm not sure why we're still getting this at plus money but sign me up.

Eloy Jimenez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Dodgers ruin Kelly's night... again

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has had a really good season. The D-Backs right-hander has a 2.94 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and has limited opponents to a .219 batting average. Now, imagine how good those numbers would be if the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t exist.

Yes, like many other National League pitchers out there, the Dodgers have been a thorn in Kelly's side all season long. And that thorn returns tonight when Kelly and the D-Backs continue their series with the Dodgers in the desert. 

Kelly’s situation isn’t unique, because the Dodgers are awesome, but they have really had his number. In three starts against Los Angeles this season, Kelly has been roughed up for a 9.69 ERA while surrendering a .359 batting average. 

Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy are all hitting .389 or better in their careers vs. Kelly.

Kelly has surrendered 19 hits in 13 innings over those three starts against L.A. The right-hander gave up seven hits in two of those three starts and five in the other. And the time he gave up five, his start lasted just two innings.

With Kelly having a tendency to pitch deep into games (6.13 innings per start) and just not matching up well against the Dodgers, we like him to eclipse his hits allowed prop of 5.5 in this one.

Merrill Kelly Prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-120)

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