We have just one month left in the MLB regular season, which means there isn't much time left to look at the betting board and see more than a dozen games and thousands of MLB player prop bets available.
This Friday we're backing Boston's Bogaerts, putting our money on the NL Cy Young odds favorite, and expecting a strong start from an Astros pitcher who made his season debut less than a month ago.
Here are our best free MLB player prop picks for September 2.
MLB props for September 2
- Bogaerts Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
- Alcantara Over 19.5 outs (-125)
- McCullers Over 5.5 strikeouts (-114)
Picks made on 9/2/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
X marks the spots
Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts went 2-4 at the plate last night, which means that he has picked up at least two hits in seven of his last eight games. Over that span, Bogaerts is batting .469 with 24 total bases to raise his season batting average to .311 with 214 total bases.
Tonight, Bogaerts and the Red Sox face off against Rangers right-hander Dallas Keuchel. It's hard to imagine that Keuchel is a former Cy Young winner since he might be the worst starter in the majors right now.
The southpaw has bounced between three clubs this season and is pitching to an 8.84 ERA, with a 2.05 WHIP and an opponent slugging percentage of .578 across 13 starts.
Bogaerts has a slugging percentage of .553 against left-handed pitchers and he also hits better at Fenway, where he slugs .500. With Keuchel allowing plenty of contact, take the Over 1.5 total bases for Bogaerts.
Xander Bogaerts Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)
Fishy lines
Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara is one player we're not going to be seeing in the postseason, so let's make some smart bets on him while we can.
The NL Cy Young favorite has pitched to a sizzling 2.13 ERA with a 2.87 FIP and a 0.98 WHIP across 26 starts. But his most impressive stat has been his MLB-leading 185 2-3 innings pitched since he's a rare workhorse in an era of massive bullpen usage.
Alcantara had his worst outing of the year against the Dodgers two weeks ago but bounced back with a gem against that same Dodgers team last Saturday when he pitched his fourth complete game of the year and allowed just a single run.
The Over/Under on Alcantara's outs today is set at 19.5, a number he has eclipsed in 17 of his last 20 starts.
While Alcantara is facing off against a dangerous Braves lineup today, keep in mind that he had two starts against them earlier in the year and was lights-out. He had a complete game win against them at home on May 22 and then threw eight innings of one-run ball at Truist Park six days later.
Sandy Alcantara Prop: Over 19.5 outs (-125 at bet365)
Lance a make 'em dance
Lance McCullers Jr. made his season debut three weeks ago against the A's and looked very sharp, allowing just two hits across six innings of shutout ball. In his next start, he allowed three runs and fanned six batters in five innings against the Braves. He followed up on that with his most recent outing where he held the Orioles off the scoreboard in five innings.
The 28-year-old had been recovering from a strained flexor tendon, and the fact that he has been so good after being sidelined since last October is terrific news for a guy that was having a breakout year with the Astros in 2021. McCullers had pitched to a 3.16 ERA with 185 strikeouts in 162 1-3 innings last year and he had fanned at least six batters in 13 of his last 17 regular season starts.
While his strikeout rate has been much lower in his three appearances this season, it has been a small sample size and the velocity and movement on his pitches are almost identical to a year ago. Going up against an Angels lineup that has the highest strikeout rate in the majors, I like McCullers to pick up at least six punchouts.
Lance McCullers Jr. Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-114 at BetRivers)
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