The MLB season is winding down. Clinched teams may sit their best bats and those eliminates will ultimately pitch a couple of Triple-A guys. Despite many tight races, just be sure to keep track of it all.
A lot can happen in the final two weeks of the season. I’d recommend staying away from betting large sums of money down the stretch. At least wait until you have a lineup if you’re going to put loads of money on a game.
I’ve got three prop picks and predictions for today’s MLB slate on September 23. We should be clear of any different lineups and pitching changes.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Braves Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (-115)
The Atlanta Braves have smashed the Arizona Diamondbacks throughout their road series. They’ve gone 3-0 and have one last game against Arizona before having to play the Padres. Getting a series sweep will be crucial for the Braves, who are still just three games above the Phillies for the NL East divisional lead.
Madison Bumgarner will take the hill for the Diamondbacks, and he’s been hot and cold all season long. Last week, he shut down the Astros to just two runs on one hit – which was a home run – and struck out three while walking one.
Before that game, Bumgarner allowed 10 runs in his previous 12 innings along with 13 hits. In the last 30 days, Bumgarner has a 6.17 xFIP, low strikeouts and high walks.
The Braves, on the other hand, should have at least seven righties in the lineup against Bumgarner. In his last 91 plate appearances against righties, Bumgarner has a wOBA of .379 and an ISO of .282.
Reds Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (-110)
Patrick Corbin will take the mound for the Nationals tonight. In September, the left-hander has allowed 24 hits, 11 runs and three home runs in just 18 innings of work. It’s bad when you allow the New York Mets to slug 11 hits off you.
In the last 30 days, Corbin has an xFIP of 4.97 with 16.3 percent strikeouts and 9.8 percent walks. The lefty is also allowing 56.1 percent hard contact, which is really high for any starter.
Righties are also hitting a .489 wOBA and ISO of .353 in his last 97 plate appearances. That’s a huge sample size when it comes to how he’s done against righties.
The Reds will feature an entire lineup of righties outside Joey Votto. Votto has shown some power against lefties to begin with and they'll have major power coming from Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez, and Kyle Farmer, who all have elevated power from the right side against lefties.
Blue Jays/Twins Over 4.5 F5 (-140)
I love betting in the first five on MLB games because it takes relief pitching out of the equation.
In this matchup, the Twins will send out Michael Pineda, while the Blue Jays will throw their left-hander in Steven Matz.
Matz has a 4.71 xFIP in his last 30 days and has limited strikeouts at this point of the season. The Twins will more than likely have eight righties in the lineup including Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson, Mitch Garver and Brent Rooker, who have all hit for power against lefties as of late.
Furthermore, Pineda of the Twins has a 4.51 xFIP in the last 30 days and is striking out just 14.5 percent of batters on the season. He’s giving up 48.6 percent hard contact and allowing so many balls to be put in play.
Good things happen when you put the ball in play, and for the Blue Jays that’s serious. They’re hitting 23 percent line drives as a lineup and have a .220 ISO along with a .340 wOBA and just 35.8 percent ground balls in the last 30 days against righties.
Both teams should be able to knock the opposition around early in this one.
MLB betting card for September 23
- Braves Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (-115)
- Reds Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (-110)
- Blue Jays/Twins Over 4.5 F5 (-140)
Picks made on 9/23/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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Where can I bet on MLB props?
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