There's less than a week left in the 2021 MLB season and as wild card and division races pick up steam, there's plenty of MLB prop bets to consider.
Today we focus on a pair of AL East foes battling it out for a wild-card berth, back a stud starter looking to will his team to a division title in the NL East, and fade one of the worst clubs in the majors against the best.
Here are our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Tuesday, September 28.
Today’s MLB props and picks
- Yankees vs. Blue Jays First Five Innings Over 5 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Zack Wheeler Strikeouts Over 6.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
- Giants 4.5 Innings Line -0.5 (-125 at Bet365)
Picks made on 9/28/2021 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays First Five Innings Over 5 (best odds: -110 at DraftKings)
The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays begin a pivotal three-game set north of the border today as they battle for a wild card spot. Both teams are opting to go with struggling pitchers coming off the IL.
Yankees right-hander Jameson Taillon hasn't pitched since September 6 and has surrendered at least three earned runs in five consecutive starts, pitching to a 7.01 ERA and giving up seven home runs over that span. He's also struggled on the road all year, posting a 5.66 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .272 in 62 innings.
The Jays will respond with Hyun Jin Ryu who is coming off the 10-day IL after a neck strain. Ryu was outstanding in his first season with the Jays last year, but has been brutal lately, allowing four dingers and 12 earned runs through 4 1-3 innings in his last two starts. Over his previous eight starts, Ryu has pitched to a 7.61 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP.
The Blue Jays have been an offensive powerhouse this season, leading the majors with an OPS of .792 and plating 5.18 runs per game, with that number bumping up to 5.45 at home. The Yankees rank fifth in the majors with an OPS of .830 over the last 15 days and are averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last 15 contests. Expect early fireworks in this one and bet the Over 5 on the first five innings total.
Zack Wheeler Strikeouts Over 6.5 (best odds: -105 at DraftKings)
Another important three-game set takes place in Atlanta as the Braves host the Phillies, who are just 2.5 games behind them in the NL East. The Phillies will send Cy Young odds candidate and Georgia native Zack Wheeler to the mound tonight. Wheeler is 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 240 strikeouts in 206 1-3 innings this season.
Wheeler has been even better this month, allowing just three runs and fanning 32 batters in 23 2-3 innings. He's also been lights-out against the Braves this year, pitching to a 1.35 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and 34 strikeouts across 26 2-3 innings.
The Braves have a strong lineup, but they do have a tendency to strike out, ranking 22nd in the majors with 9.01 strikeouts per game with that number ballooning to 10.6 over the last two weeks. Grab the Over 6.5 on Wheeler's strikeouts total.
Giants 4.5 innings line -0.5 (best odds: -125 at Bet365)
One team that isn't stressing about locking up a postseason berth is the San Francisco Giants, who have MLB's best record at 102-54. But they still need to finish the season strong if they want to avoid being caught by their division-rival Dodgers, who happen to have the second-best record and are just two games behind them.
Luckily for Giants fans, they begin a three-game home set against the Diamondbacks, who are just 11-50 in their last 61 games on the road.
Arizona will send Luke Weaver to the mound today and the righty has a 7.94 ERA with an opponent batting average of .299 in five away starts this season. He also won't be able to count on much run support from a D-Backs team that is 26th in the majors with an OPS of .659 on the road.
Logan Webb will toe the rubber for the Giants and he has a sizzling 1.76 ERA with an OBA of .208 in 61 1-3 innings at home this year. San Fran also hits very well at Oracle Park, ranking fifth in the majors with an OPS of .787 at home. Expect the Giants to get up early in this one and back them on the first-half runline.
MLB betting card for September 28
- Yankees vs. Blue Jays First Five Innings Over 5 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Zack Wheeler Strikeouts Over 6.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
- Giants 4.5 innings line -0.5 (-125 at Bet365)
MLB parlays
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