Another day, another great baseball slate as we head down the season's final stretch. As usual, I'm surveying the MLB odds for the best value.
First I'm hitting an afternoon game when the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals meet. After that, I'm targeting a Cincinnati Reds pitcher on the mound who is being undervalued, to finish things off I'm going with an undervalued player to get a hit for the St. Louis Cardinals.
I'm fresh off a profitable day, going 2-for-3 yesterday. Let's continue to cash some tickets and dive into my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday's MLB player props market.
MLB props for September 12
- Jimenez Over 1.5 TB
- Williamson Over 4.5 Ks
- Nootbaar 1+ hit
Picks made on September 12 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Ahoy Eloy
Brady Singer has been hit hard this season, sitting at the bottom of the league among qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate. Today, he'll take the mound for the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of a doubleheader against the Chicago White Sox.
I'm targeting Eloy Jimenez in this spot as this is a sensational matchup for him. For starters, Jimenez leads the White Sox in hard-hit rate. As noted earlier, this is the soft spot in Singer's game, and Jimenez is well-equipped to take advantage of it. That's far from where the matchup advantages end, though. Singer is a heavy breaking-ball pitcher with the slider and sinker essentially making up his entire arsenal — he throws the pair over 95% of the time.
Against the sinker, Jimenez ranks first in run value, second in hard-hit rate, and third in batting average on Chicago's roster. Against the slider, he's even better, ranking third, first, and first in those respective metrics.
No matter where Singer chooses to go with Jimenez, he will be pitching to his direct strengths. Unless Jimenez draws a walk or two, this stands a tremendous chance to cash. I price it at -122. Admittedly, the edge is unlikely to be that strong, but this number still has some great value.
Eloy Jimenez prop: Over 1.5 total bases
Prop bet #2: Long live the streak
Brandon Williamson has the longest streak of cashing his strikeout prop among starting pitchers today with six consecutive. Over the last 15 games, he has had a 60% hit rate at this number with an average of 4.6. From a pure raw numbers perspective, there's some value here, and I'm gladly taking it.
Williamson will oppose the Detroit Tigers and this is what he'll face: A team with a Bottom 10 whiff rate to go with the seventh-highest strikeouts per game in baseball. Because of these things, Williamson is prime to eclipse this number for a seventh straight outing.
Look a little deeper, and you gain more confidence. Williamson is a fastball-heavy pitcher with high velocity, making up about 60% of his arsenal. The splits for the Tigers against the fastball are not pretty. Depending on the lineups they roll out tonight, we could see up to five players with a whiff rate above league average against that pitch.
My edge on this one was slight (a projection of +108 on the price); however, that reflects some of the minor data points we still have for Williamson. From a matchup-on-paper standpoint, this is an easy take.
Brandon Williamson prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts
Prop bet #3: Lars loves lefties
This is a pure numbers play. I price it at -161, which is too much of an edge to pass up. Nootbaar has also been on quite a roll.
Nootbaar only has a hit in six of his last 10 games, so this isn't overwhelming from that perspective. However, when you look a little deeper, you see the attraction of this play.
For whatever reason, he's been sensational against the Baltimore Orioles. He faced them once this year with two hits, and, in addition, he recorded a hit in all three appearances against them a season ago. He'll face John Means today, and though he's yet to oppose him in his career, Nootbaar sees a slight increase in batting average against left-handed pitchers. A season ago, he saw a considerable jump from .217 to .273.
This is as simple as it can be. I'm getting a reasonably hot hitter and one who leads the Cardinals lineup in batting average at an affordable price. I'm also getting him against a lefty, his preferred matchup. I'm keeping the methodology simple here and happily taking this.
Lars Nootbaar prop: Over 0.5 hits
Not intended for use in MA.
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