Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Avila Carves Up Swing-Happy Phillies

Prop bet #1: Reid between the lines

I'm not regularly laying -165 on an MLB prop, but this is too good to turn down. I projected this number at -181, a significant edge no matter the juice, and one I'm comfortable laying. 

Reid Detmers has gone Over this number in nine of his last ten starts, and to expand even further, three of his last four starts have seen him walk three or more batters. It's been on the uptick lately, and now he'll see the Baltimore Orioles, who have the sixth-highest walk rate in baseball against left-handed pitchers.

Detmers has a walk rate in the Bottom 35% of the league and threw 44 pitches out of the zone compared to 45 for strikes in his last outing. He becomes particularly dominant when he starts to get some of those chases outside the zone, but those chases are unlikely tonight.

Along with the walks increasing, the O's see their chase rate lower against southpaws. This is an excellent alignment of things and will cash at a higher clip than the 62% implied probability. 

Reid Detmers prop: Over 1.5 walks (-165 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: UnWilling to get a hit

In isolation, this may seem like little value. Will Brennan has only gone hitless in two of his last ten games, which would make this one closer to a price over +300 if you're looking at short-term results. However, once you go a bit deeper, you see some value. I priced this around +165, giving me a playable edge.

Since 2017, Brennan has had six hits against Sonny Gray for a .333 batting average. That's probably part of why we're getting a reasonable price here. How much Gray has developed his sweeper pitch this season has yet to be factored into this. He's taken it from a batting average of around .220 a season ago to one of the best in baseball at .108 this season. That's a sharp improvement and a pitch he can dominate Brennan with.

Brennan enters this game with the lowest slugging, run value, and batting average in the Cleveland Guardians roster against the sweeper. This is a pitch Gray is throwing at the second-highest clip of any pitch this season. If he can lean on it here, he'll dominate Brennan. I'll take my chances, especially if Gray can make it 7+ innings. 

Will Brennan prop: Under 0.5 hits

Prop bet #3: Swing and a miss

One of my most significant values on the board involved this late-night game between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres. I priced this at -138, and I'm gladly grabbing it at plus money. 

Pedro Avila has eclipsed his 4.5 K line just thrice over his last nine games, but tonight, he gets a matchup similar to those three teams he's exceeded. The Phillies rank eighth in swing rate — sitting close to the Colorado Rockies — whom he struck out seven times at the start of August. The Phillies have the fourth-highest chase rate in baseball, and the team right next to them? You guessed it, the Colorado Rockies, who sit third in that metric. 

Avila has a chase rate that's in the top half of baseball. It's not an elite skill set, but it's certainly something he does well. He's only been pitching since the end of June, so the data size is smaller but still useful. Avila should get plenty of swings outside the zone here from free-swinger batters like Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and others. It should be enough to get him Over what is a freely low total and attractive at plus money. 

Pedro Avila prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts