The Tampa Bay Rays will have the opportunity to set the MLB record for the most wins to start a season when they visit the Toronto Blue Jays for the opener of a three-game series on Friday night.
And frankly, their chances are looking pretty good.
That’s partly because the Rays are playing out of their minds, and also because the Blue Jays will hand the ball to struggling starter Jose Berrios. The right-hander's control issues have carried over from last season and he has been getting hammered as a result.
Despite their incredible start to 2023, are the 13-0 Rays still a little undervalued at -125? I break down this American League East matchup and bring you my best bet in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Blue Jays on April 14.
Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Rays vs Blue Jays predictions
The Tampa Bay Rays are breaking the MLB record for most consecutive wins to start the season tonight. And despite their historic start, I think there is still value in the Rays on the moneyline.
These lineups are close to a wash, but Tampa Bay should be bigger than a -125 favorite in this spot considering the pitching matchup. The Rays hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen while the Toronto Blue Jays counter with the floundering Jose Berrios.
It appears that the Berrios hasn’t worked out the issues that plagued him last year. The former All-Star can’t seem to locate his breaking ball and it means that he is relying far too much on his fastball (which hasn't been located well thus far).
As a result, Berrios has been hit hard and often. Berrios has given up 14 runs (12 earned) on 15 hits in just 9 2/3 innings of work while ranking in the Bottom 20% in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and expected slugging percentage. It’s just ugly.
Now he faces a Rays lineup that looks unstoppable at the moment. Tampa Bay leads the MLB in batting average, OPS, runs per game, and home runs while rarely striking out. On top of that, guys like Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, and Harold Ramirez all have solid career numbers against Berrios.
On the other side, Rasmussen has looked like one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball through the early portion of the season. Rasmussen has yet to allow a run this season and has given up just three hits while striking out 15 batters over the course of 13 innings.
While the Blue Jays lineup certainly presents a challenge, Rasmussen clearly looks like the starter who is better equipped to deal with a tough matchup. The Rays have held a lead through five innings in 11 of their 13 wins, and I’m betting it happens again tonight.
My best bet: Rays first five innings -0.5 (+105 at Sports Interaction)
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Rays vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The moneyline in this game has been interesting. The Rays somewhat shockingly opened this AL East matchup as slight -105 underdogs, despite being undefeated and facing Berrios.
My only explanation for that has to be that this is a road game and the Jays’ lineup has been locked so far this season. However, that line didn’t last long and the Rays have moved to the -125 to -130 range.
But even at that number, I still think there is value in the Rays here based mostly on the pitching matchup. Rasmussen also had plenty of success against the Blue Jays last season, pitching to a 2.70 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over the course of five starts.
I would say the difference in starting pitching would give the Rays a closer to 60% chance to win this game (-150). I would consider playing them up to -140 on the moneyline.
Rays vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup hit the board at 9 and that’s where it remains as of Friday afternoon. I understand why we’re getting a total this high. These are two of the most dangerous lineups in baseball at the moment, and it’s a game in which Berrios is involved.
That said, these two AL East rivals have a history of playing tight games and would have gone 11-7-1 to Under at this number in their 18 meetings from last season. There is also at least one good starter in this game, and both squads feature good bullpen relief, with the Rays ranking third in reliever ERA (2.34) and the Jays coming in at eighth-best (3.33).
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, April 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSUN, SNET |
Rays vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Drew Rasmussen (2-0, 0.00 ERA): Rasmussen has yet to give up an earned run this season and the right-hander limited the Blue Jays to one earned run in four of his five starts against them last season.
Jose Berrios (0-2, 11.17 ERA): Berrios could be in for another short outing, as his outs-recorded prop is set at 17.5. He's gone Under that in both games this season and in two of three against the Rays last season.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
Have you heard? The Rays have won 13 in a row. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays
