Red Sox vs Astros Picks and Predictions: Houston Strikes Back in Finale

The Boston Red Sox will be looking to sweep the division-leading Houston Astros this afternoon after a trade deadline day that saw them look more like sellers than buyers. 

With Jose Urquidy perhaps being luckier than his 3.86 ERA is indicating, and Rich Hill having to finally face a good offense, are we going to see some more offense than we did in the first two games of the series?

Find out in my free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Astros. 

Red Sox vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros opened at -225 and hit -215 overnight. However, the pitching change moved the line from -215 to -200. The total is teetering between 8.5 and 9. Houston closed at -205 last night (O/U 8) and -170 (O/U 7.5) on Monday.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Astros predictions

• Prediction: Astros ML (-200)
• Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Hill Under 3.5 Ks (-140)

Picks made on 8/03/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Red Sox vs Astros game info

• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Wednesday, August 3, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, AT&T Sportsnet

Red Sox vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Rich Hill (4-4, 4.20 ERA): Hill will now make the start after Brayan Bello was the penciled-in starter for today's matinee. Hill is coming off the 15-day IL due to knee discomfort and last pitched on July 1. He might not get deep and give way to Bello but the pitching blueprint is unclear and this game was off the board just before 10 a.m. ET.

Hill has been effective in his starts but has faced some bottom-tiered offenses. Of his 15 starts, the best offense he’s faced has been the Minnesota Twins. THE BAT projects him for under 80 pitches today. 

Jose Urquidy (6-6, 3.26 ERA): Urquidy owns a respectable ERA but there is a lot indicating that it should be closer to 5.00. His xERA sits a 4.74 with a FIP of 4.41. He is on a great stretch heading into tonight, with a 2.35 ERA over his last seven games, but don’t be fooled: This is a pitcher who gives up a ton of hard contact and barrels and is an extreme flyball pitcher.

Urquidy has seen Boston once this season with the Red Sox tagging him for four runs on 12 hits over five innings. 

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in the Red Sox’s last five games after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros

Red Sox vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Red Sox took the first two games of the series — a pair of one-run, low-scoring victories — but trusting Rich Hill is a tough assignment for bettors who want a taste of the +170 Boston moneyline. 

Hill was a late addition to the game after Brayan Bello was scheduled to get the start. Hill is coming off the IL and will likely have a short leash today. Bello could piggyback the starter, as he did in his last start. Neither are pitchers we want to trust versus this boosted Houston offense that added Trey Mancini, as Hill has feasted on some of baseball’s worst lineups. Bello has also been torched in his first four games in the majors. 

Rich Hill starts today for Red Sox, not Brayan Bello.

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) August 3, 2022

The change from Bello to Hill moved the line 15 points from -215 to -200 for the home side, which might be a little much. Last night’s matchup between Kutter Crawford and Cristian Javier closed at Houston -205, and if Boston does go Hill/Bello, this should still be closer to the -215 it was. The difference between Hill and Bello is not 15 points. 

However, in saying that, Jose Urquidy is also not a starter we want to trust with heavy juice. He has gone at least six innings and has allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight games, but has seen some mediocre offenses over that stretch and his expected metrics are much higher than his current ERA.

Urquidy is a pitch-to-contact pitcher who allows barrels and hard hits at a rate much higher than the league average. His xERA is nearly a full run higher than his current ERA and his fastball and curveball, which he throws over 65% of the time combined, are getting hit heavily and have a .489 slugging percentage against.

On the season, Urquidy’s WHIP is over .200 points higher than his career marks. The Red Sox roughed him up the last time they saw him, when they collected 12 hits over five innings against the Houston starter.

With the uncertainties of Boston's pitching blueprint, combined with Urquidy being overvalued, the side is a pass for me.

If I knew Boston was going to go Hill and then Bello, I’d be more inclined to play the Astros moneyline at -200 or look at the -1.5 (-105) as I think the price should be closer to -215 or -220, but that is just speculation.

Prediction: Astros moneyline (-200 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The first two games of the series have closed with a total below 8.5 and each game hit the Under easily. I’m not getting lulled into the idea that the previous offensive performances are going to spill into today’s matinee, especially with the starting pitching matchup.

Due to the change from Bello to Hill, some books have overrated and moved the total from 8.5 to 9, but there are some books that are still offering the 8.5.

In my opinion, the change of pitcher shouldn’t affect this total and we were ready to hit the Over 8.5 (-115) with Bello starting. The change to Hill hasn’t swayed us away from the same number.

Hill last pitched on July 1 and his 4.20 ERA is a little misleading, considering he hasn’t faced a Top-10 offense all season. He’ll have a short leash and if Bello relieves him, Houston could be stacking runs early and often.

Bello’s struggles are well known. Teams are not missing his primary offerings and are posting a 1.027 OPS against the right-hander. 

It’s Urquidy that offers the best value on this total, as his underlying numbers show that this is not a 3.84 ERA pitcher. This is a starter who had a 4.99 ERA over his first 11 starts and thanks to a recent stretch that saw weak offenses in Seattle (twice), Oakland (twice), and the Angels, his current form is misleading and is giving bettors a possible half-run on the total.

Urquidy can get deep and doesn’t walk many, but the hard contact he gives up is tough to ignore. He’s a flyball pitcher who has allowed 17 homers on 100-plus innings and faces a Boston lineup that will have fewer distractions now that the deadline is over. 

The Red Sox stuck Urquidy for a season-high 12 hits in their last meeting, and combined with a Houston lineup that is healthy and added Mancini yesterday, I’m expecting some two-way scoring. 

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120 at DraftKings) 

Best bet

THE BAT has Rich Hill projected for just 71 pitches and roughly 13 outs today. That’s a pretty short leash to try and hit the Over on his 3.5 strikeout market, especially for a pitcher who hasn’t thrown for the Sox since July 1. 

He has made just one rehab start, where he threw 56 pitches in Double-A on July 28, and he recorded nine outs against 14 batters.

The Astros also strike out at one of the lowest rates in baseball, at 20% on the season. 

Hill has compiled 58 punchouts over 70-plus innings but that has come against one of the easiest schedules a starting pitcher can see including the Athletics, Orioles, and Tigers a combined six times.

It’s a little juicy, but with a shorter leash than usual vs. a lethal offense that doesn’t miss the ball much, Hill’s Under 3.5 strikeouts at -140 is my best bet this afternoon. 

Pick: Rich Hill Under 3.5 strikeouts (-140 at PointsBet)

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