The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays will meet for the second time this evening on Monday night. These could be the two teams battling it out for AL East when it's all said and done.
The first series between these two saw the Jays (10-6) take two out of three in Boston. Now, the BoSox (7-9) head to Toronto looking to snap a two-game skid.
Who wins the first game of this series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on Friday, April 25.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Opening odds for today's matchup were released late last night. The Blue Jays opened as a solid -140 favorite. Since then, the Red Sox have taken some money; the number has fallen to -120 in most spots, with Boston coming back at +110.
The total opened up at 9 and made a sharp adjustment to a flat 8 across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 4/25/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Center, Toronto, ON
• Date: Monday, April 25, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Sportsnet
Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 3.68 ERA): Has been a bit of a bumpy start for Eovaldi this season. Yes, he has the one win to his credit, but he's yet to go past five innings this season. This same Blue Jays team lit him up a little over a week ago. Though they only scored one earned run, they had seven hits, and most of those were hard. Eovaldi has had success throughout his career primarily due to his elite control and throwing of many pitches in the strike zone. However, his hard-hit rate is currently set at 52%. That's significantly higher than it's been in his career. Could he be due for positive regression?
Jose Berrios (1-0, 6.35 ERA): Speaking of bumpy? Jose Berrios. His first start was a disaster giving up four earned runs after compiling just one out. Since then, he's settled down some. He only gave up one run a week ago to this Red Sox team, but it came at the expense of eight hits. Much like his counterpart, teams have hit him hard. He has a hard-hit rate of over 55%. That's something the top end of this Boston lineup can capitalize on if he isn't careful.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: JD Martinez RF (Out), Chris Sale SP (Out).
Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez RF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0-1 in Boston's last six overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This is a bit of a tricky matchup to handicap, but I have to lean towards the Blue Jays. I believe that these bullpens are as close to even as you can get, so I'm honing in on these two starting pitchers.
This is so hard to handicap because you have a pitcher in Eovaldi, who is due for positive regression. Virtually all of his numbers from last season are above where he's typically been in his career.
When you look deeper, you'll see that his hard-hit rate, in particular, is primarily due to some positive regression. With that being said, my numbers have the Blue Jays at about -155 instead of the widely available -120 number. That's a significant amount of value.
It's difficult to imagine that this is where Eovaldi will take a step forward. Why? Because he's such a high strike-throwing pitcher, and the Blue Jays have been, quite literally, the best team in the MLB in hard-hit rate for a few years now.
There's a reason why Eovaldi had some of his blow-up outings against the Blue Jays last season. It's simply just a favorable matchup for them.
Eovaldi was lucky the last time these two faced off. He gave up only one run but allowed nine hits. I don't think he'll be so fortunate this time around.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Another Red Sox game, another Under bet.
You could almost say the same for the Blue Jays. The Under has cashed in each of Boston's last five games and is 5-1 in the previous six meetings between these two clubs. Let's not try to reinvent the wheel. Let's follow the trends for this one.
Even if Eovaldi is hit hard by the Jays, I think he'll be able to have enough regression to limit the ball from going out of the park too often. Beyond that, Eovaldi does an excellent job throwing strikes, so you won't have to worry about too many needless baserunners due to walks.
On the other side, you have another strong candidate for positive regression with Jose Berrios. The significant difference between the two is that he has a favorable matchup.
Berrios has traditionally got close to 50% of his batted balls on the ground; that's a little above MLB average. He's been exceptionally unlucky to start the season with that number hovering around 25%. Boston has plenty of batters in their lineup prone to this so you can expect a number much closer to Berrios' career average.
My numbers have these teams combining for around 6.5 runs, and I'll take the run of value.
Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
The regression truther himself has found a spot on the board that seems due for the ultimate regression.
A week ago, when these two faced off, Xander Bogaerts was 2 of 4 against Berrios. Bogaerts logged two of his three career hits against Berrios in 20 plate appearances in that game. That means before April 20, Bogaerts was 1 of 16 against Berrios in his career.
In addition to that, we've talked about this ground-ball situation. Jose Berrios has been exceptionally unlucky. His current ground-ball percentage is 23%. That's unbelievably awful and not even close to who he's been in his career. Do you know who hits a ton of ground balls for the Red Sox? You guessed it.
This number currently sits at +165 on DraftKings, and I see value down to +145.
Pick: Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 hits (+165)
