Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers has a favorable matchup with New York Mets righty Luis Severino tonight.
My Red Sox vs. Mets predictions like the slugger to capitalize on the hurler's recent struggles to send him packing early.
Read on for my full MLB picks for tonight's action.
Red Sox vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, slashing .284/.362/.557 with 28 home runs and 33 doubles across 530 plate appearances in 2024.
Devers has particularly mashed against right-handed pitchers, owning an extreme platoon advantage with a .309 batting average and 24 of his 28 long balls in these matchups.
New York Mets starter Luis Severino has had a yo-yo-type season. Although he blanked the Miami Marlins in a complete-game effort on August 17, he hasn't been consistently effective of late and has allowed two home runs in three of his last six outings.
Severino's whiff and strikeout rates have been well below league average, and while he's limited barrels on the whole, Devers makes a lot of contact, which only adds to the matchup advantage.
A recurring shoulder injury has held Devers out of Boston's lineup on occasion of late, but that is clearly priced into his total bases prop today. Likewise, a relatively poor August has lowered expectations a touch for the slugging third baseman.
The Over 1.5 total bases is also listed as a five-star play in our Covers Player Prop Projections powered by The BAT.
Red Sox vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs
Over 6.5
Both Josh Inglis and Neil Parker have highlighted why taking the Under on Severino's outs prop is a solid play today and I encourage you to check out their Starting Pitcher Edges and MLB player prop picks for today's games.
Severino's struggles correlate with Devers' success as a result and to boost our payout, I'm adding the Over on an alternate total of 6.5. Part of this is because Brayan Bello is on the hill for Boston. While the righty has performed better lately, he still has a 4.66 ERA over 25 starts.
If Severino struggles as we expect, Bello won't have to get obliterated for the Over to cash, either. His shaky performance overall is keeping me from targeting the moneyline on either side, though, as we could see a final score of 8-7 to either side.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Mets odds
Red Sox vs Mets live odds
Red Sox vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +105 | New York -125
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-190) | New York -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Red Sox vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox opened at +105 on the moneyline and can still be had at that number with some books offering Boston at even money.
- The best price available on the Mets is -114 at Pinnacle. No other book is offering a line shorter than -120.
- The total opened at a flat 8.0 and some books have slid to 8.5 with plus money to the Over.
Red Sox vs Mets trend
The Red Sox have hit their team total Over in 42 of their last 65 away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Mets.
Red Sox vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 9-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, SNY |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (12-6, 4.66 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (9-6, 3.96 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Mets latest injuries
Red Sox vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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